• Growth is not as strong as he would like
• Improvement in unemployment also not as quick as he would like.
• Fed does not see that recession has permanently affected growth potential of the US economy

• Headwinds to economies expansion only easing gradually
  Gasoline prices likely to have limited impact on inflation
• Relatively encouraging economic news
• Economic expansion likely to remain modest

Meanwhile Bernanke testifies in Washington again.  Mirrors text of speech yesterday.  He is starting Q and A session.

The selling in the risk pairs following the worse than expected ISM data was short lived and the pairs like the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and EURUSD has reached either new day highs and/or new NY highs.

The EURUSDs first reaction is to the downside on the worse than expected ISM data. The 1.33097 level (38.2% of the days range), should be resistance now. A break of the 1.3294 and 1.3289 will be eyed.  A move below these levels should solicit more downside pressure.

ISM Manufacturing:  Survey: 54.8   Actual: 52.4   Prior: 54.1

Feb vs Jan 12′ Breakdown
Production: 55.3 vs 55.7
New Orders: 54.9 vs 57.6
Employment: 53.2 vs 54.3 
Inventories: 49.5 vs 49.5
Prices:  61.5 vs 55.5
Order Backlogs: 52.0  vs 52.5

ISM Prices Paid:  Survey: 58.0   Actual: 61.5   Prior: 55.5

Construction Spending: Survey: 1.0%   Actual: -0.1%  Prior:  1.5%   Revised: 1.4%

USD/JPY moves to the downside a bit.

The USDCHF was able to push above the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) at the 0.9038 level and move to the next key target – the 38.2% of the move down from the Feb 16th high. The price held this resistance target at the 0.9071 level (high reached 0.90707) and has since moved back lower. The 200 hour MA at the 0.9038 level will be eyed by traders for support. A break and the low for the day at the 0.9020 will be the next target, with further potential for a test of the 100 hour MA at the 0.8982 a possibility.  Look for buyers against the 200 hour MA on the 1st test with stops below.

The market seems nervous and that was evident at the key support level below. The pair had good support against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the Feb 16th low at the 1.32896 level and the 200 day MA at the 1.3294 level. When the price fell below these two key support levels, it should have solicited momentum technical sellers, but after dipping at 1.3281, the selling dried up and the price rotated back higher.

The correction higher has now moved to the 38.2% of the days range  and is currently looking to move above this level at the 1.3311.  Key support still remains against the 1.3289-94 levels and market tension still remains high, but with the downside tested and holding, the war continues with the bulls winning the last battle.

The 200 day MA held support at the end of yesterday’s trading day and in the morning London trading hours. The rally back to the upside off the key level pushed against the topside resistance trendline. (see hourly chart below). Now the price is between the key support (200 day MA) and the topside resistance and searching for a direction bias  for the day.

Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the price has just held support against the 100 bar MA level (near the 38.2% of the days range at the 1.59347 level).  Traders may be using this level as support for the time being.  With the daily range narrow at 65 pips (vs 106 pip 20 day average), there is room to extend the range today.  Traders may eye these shorter term MA levels for bias clues with the price inbetween support and resistance on the hourly and daily charts acting as profit taking levels until broken.

Says:

• Markets: confidence returning slowly
• Not sure that Greece has done enough
• Cannot make a definite conclusion on Greece today
• May not agree on final bailout today

Merkel also with a few comments here saying the fiscal pact is a ‘huge step’ toward stability and the EU leaders ‘intensively’ are going to be discussing Greek growth.

The 38.2% of the move up from Feb 16th comes in at the 1.3289 level. The 100 day MA comes in at the 1.3294. The price is stalling at these two levels looking for the push one way or the other.

Jobless Claims:  Survey:  355K    Actual: 351K   Prior: 351K    Revised:  353K   

Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3418K    Actual:  3402K    Prior: 3392K   Revised: 3404K

Personal Income:   Survey: 0.4%     Actual:  0.3%    Prior:  0.5%   

Personal Spending:   Survey: 0.4%    Actual: 0.2%  Prior: 0.0% 

PCE Deflator:    Survey: 2.3%  Actual:  2.4%   Prior: 2.4%  Revsied: 2.5%

PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.2%   Actual:  0.2%    Prior: 0.2%   Revsied:  0.1%

PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  1.8%   Actual:  1.9%   Prior:  1.8%   Revsied:  1.9%

US jobless claims staying at best levels since March 7, 2008. EUR/USD drops slightly on the news.

Canadian Current Account (BOP), Industrial Product Price MoM, and Raw Materials Price Index

Current Account (BOP)

• Survey: -9.6B, Actual:-10.3, Prior:-12.1B, Revised:-12.3

Industrial Product Price MoM

• Survey:0.3%, Actual:0.3%, Prior:-0.7%, Revised:-0.9%

Raw Materials Price Index

• Survey: 0.5%, Actual:0.1%, Prior:-2.4%, Revised:-2.5%

The EURUSD is in a narrow trading range today.  The low for the day was taken out in early NY trade but just barely. The low in London was 1.3304. The low in NY came in at 1.3300.  The low to high trading range is 56 pips which is much lower than the 20 day average of 121 pips.  However, the ranges have been trending to the downside of late.  The high 20 day average range in 2011 reached 146 pips.  The low range for a specific 24 hour day came in at 54 pips on the 1st trading day of the year (a semi holiday).  Today’s low of 56 pips equaled the other low for the year which occurred on February 22nd.  I would expect an extension of the range at some point today.

The price on the hourly chart is between support and resistance. On the downside, the 38.2% of the move up from the Feb 16th low comes in at the 1.32896 level. The bullish run since mid February has seen the price move from 1.2973 to a double top at the 1.3484 level.  A move below this Fibonacci level will help confirm further selling pressure in the pair.  ON the topside the price is below the 200 hour MA at the  1.3339 level currently after yesterdays sharp profit taking fall.

Also of note is the support against the 100 day MA. The key MA comes in at the 1.3294 level today. A move below this level is also needed to entice further selling pressure.

Traders will likely continue to use the 38.2%  at 1.32895 as a backstop to buy the market with a stop below the level.  The burden of proof is for the sellers to overtake the buyers. Yesterday, the sellers/profit takers took control, but until the price can breach that 38.2% level, they have not proved the sell off was nothing more than profit taking. Show me the sellinga and the ability to extend below the 38.2% and the selling pressure should intensify.

Good Morning:

Yesterday’s comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke took the steam out of any additional Fed stimulus in the short end.  The marketplace still seems to feel that the Fed will eventually do a 3rd round of their QE program-but no indication was given of when any additional QE would take place.  As the jobs markets tries to do a little better-the  Fed will monitor the situation, and act accordingly.

In other news-The Bank of England’s Miles sees  the UK QE program as very worthwhile.  The QE helped keep Gilt yields lower, along with the UK’s safe haven status, kept the nation’s economy from teetering.

Asian equity markets were lower, while European equity markets are higher-along with US Futures.

Oil is higher-over $107/bbl.  Gold is also inching up.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The less than positive comments from Bernanke has pushed the price lower in the EURUSD on risk off. The price also fell below the 100 hour MA at the 1.3415 level and stops were triggered. The price scooted down to 1.3387 which was a tick below the low from yesterday. Traders will want to see the correction hold below the 1.3415 level in order to judge the commitment of the sellers. Look for sellers against this level with further stops below the 1.3387 level.

Bernanke’s Testimony to the House

• Us Expansion uneven and modest
• GDP in 2012 likely to grow at pace of 2nd half 2011
• Fed accounts for magnitudes of deviation from goal
• Positive developments in the labor market
• Inflation and Employment mandates complementary
• Fall in unemployment more rapid than expected
• Gas prices will temporarily push up inflation
• Job market remains far from normal
• Fed follows balanced approach on dual mandate
• Long term expectations suggest subdued inflation
• Especially important to evaluate economic data
• Unemployment elevated and price outlook subdued
• Critical challenges remain for eurozone

Chicago Purcasing Manager Stronger 64.0 vs Survey of 61.0 and Prior of 60.2

Feb 12 vs Jan 12′
Prices Paid: 65.6 vs 62.4
Production: 67.8 vs 63.8
New Orders: 69.2 vs 63.6
Order Backlogs: 53.6 vs 48.6
Inventories: 49.6 vs 51.6
Employment: 64.2 vs 54.7 – Highest Number since may of 1984
Supplier Deliveries: 57.7 vs 61.5

• Adds that does not expect a decision on ESM size by the end of March

The Annualized QoQ GDP came in better at 3% (expected 2.8%)
Consumption: 2.1% vs 1.9% in the first cut.
Investment rose to 20.6% from 20.0% in the advance release.
Government fell -4.4% which was better than the -4.6% previously reported.
Exports increased 4.3% vs 4.7% and imports rose 3.8% vs 4.4%. The net exports were slightly improved at -404.4 billion vs -405.8 billion.

Contributions to the 3% Annualized Growth
Consumption 1.52%
Investment     2.42%
Net Exports   -0.07%
Government  -0.89%

The US runs a trade deficit so Net Exports tend to be a negative contributor to GDP.  Federal Government subtracted -0.58% from GDP while State and Local government subtracted -0.30%

Real Final Sales increased 1.1% which was better than the 0.8% previously reported

Good Morning:

800 European banks took advantage of the ECB’s 3 year lending program.  The ECB distributed over 529 billion euros-this exceeded the 470 billion euros that was expected. The lending plan has alleviated a credit crunch in Europe, but has it helped increase lending in the EU?
 
In US political news- Mitt Romney won both the Arizona and Michigan Republican primaries on Tuesday.  He won Arizona with a big lead-but Michigan (his home state), only gave him a 3  point lead-which is a narrow margin for a native son-His father George Romney was a GM executive and Governor  of the state.  Arizona gave him a 22 point lead.  These will all lead to the next round of primaries-Super Tuesday which will be on March 8th.

Gold is lower-but Silver is slightly higher.  Oil is trading just below $107/bbl.
Equity markets are higher-as are US Futures. 

Fed Chairman Bernanke in on his way to testify on Capital Hill this morning. He will deliver his semi annual report to the House Financial Services Committee.
Beige Book released this afternoon.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

(Annualized):   Survey: 2.8%   Actual: 3.0%   Prior: 2.8%  

Personal Consumption:   Survey: 2.0%   Actual: 2.1%   Prior: 2.0%  

GDP Price Index:   Survey: 0.4%   Actual:  0.9%   Prior: 0.4%  

Core PCE QoQ:   Survey: 1.1%   Actual: 1.3%   Prior: 1.1%

CLICK ON PICTURE FOR PDF VERSION

A total of 800 banks will receive a total of 529.5 billion euros ($712 billion) in the latest round of 3 year lending by the ECB.  This was higher than the previous 489 billion Euros (523 banks participated last time).  The total was higher than the 470 billion expected. The funds are which are intended to spur on lending has mainly led to a decline in yields of sovereign debt as banks take look to recapitalize their balance sheets with carry profits.  It has also averted a liquidity or credit crunch in the EU. Whether it encourages lending is still open for debate.  The results (which were released at 5:25 AM ET) led initially to a rally in the EURUSD. When the underside of old trendline resistance held, the price rotated to new lows for the day.  The EURUSD is starting NY near the middle of the post announcement range (at 1.3450) and will battle between the upside resistance and on the downside the 100 hour MA which comes in at the 1.3413 level (low reached 1.34215).  It is month end so, there could be unusual flows that cause choppy trading conditions so be aware.   In other EU news overnight, Germany Unemployment Change held steady MoM (0K vs -5K) and the Unemployment rate rose to 6.8% from an expected 6.7%.  EU CPI Estimate came in a touch lower at 2.6% (vs est of 2.7%).  The next 3months a total of 2.4% of MoM gains from last year will roll off (0.4%, 1.4% and 0.6%).  The net effect on the YoY inflation will be of interest to the mkt & the ECB.  Should economic activity slow more than expected it could give the ECB a reason to ease further (currently 1% target). Finland and the the Netherlands approved the Greek bailout.  In the UK Mortgage approvals increased to 58.7k (est 54K).  Swiss CPI fell by a greater than expected -0.7%  (-0.3% exp).  The EURCHF barely moved/the USDCHF moved higher but has since come back down. NZ building permits increased by 8.3% MoM which was much higher than the 3.4% expected. The news sent the NZDUSD to it’s highest level since Sep 1 2011.  It also pushed the pair above its month long Non trending range. The old high of 0.8426 will now be support for the pair.  Today US GDP will be released at 8:30 AM with the second cut of the data coming in unchanged at 2.8%. Consumption is expected to decline slightly to 1.9% from 2%. US Chicago PMI (10 AM) is est to show a rise to 61 from 60.2.  The Feds Bernanke testifies in Washington at 10 AM and the Fed’s Beige book will be released at 2 PM

MBA Mortgage Applications Released -0.3% vs Prior of -4.5%

BOE’s King says the ECB LTRO has removed the possibility of a bank run in the Eurozone and the UK.

Core CPI was also worse at 1.5%.

• Expects subdued growth in the first half of 2012.
• Sees a gradual strengthening of the UK economy, easing a squeeze on household incomes.
• Expects inflation falling back to target the near term.
• Sees wages and oil prices as upside risks to inflation.

According to sources, 12 of the 17 member states of the EU need to ratify the EU fiscal compact. If Ireland referendum vote is not passed, it does not mean the measures cannot be enacted.   The news nevertheless worried the market and new lows were made (below 1.33897. Low reached 1.33884). The close from yesterday at the 1.3396 and the 1.34066-1.34122 will be eyed as topside resistance.

The EURUSD has moved lower on the headline on the uncertainty of the vote.

The Irish Deputy PM Gilmore does add that he feels any referendum vote will pass.

Consumer Confidence better than expected at 70.8 as well. The up and down action continues for the EURUSD. The USDJPY pushed higher on the data. and looks toward the 80.71 level (broken trendline). The 100 hour MA at the 80.46 is now support.

Not much rhythm to the market action today.

Consumer Confidence:    Survey: 63.0   Actual: 70.8    Prior: 61.1    Revised:  61.5

Highest consumer confidence number since February 2011.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:  Survey:  14     Actual: 20   Prior: 12

The 1.3425 area is shaping up as a level the market is paying attention to for the EURUSD.  There are a number of support levels at the area. Should the price move below the level, there should be some further selling in the pair, with a break of 1.3415 the next target.

The pair has been in a quiet range today.  There is room for an extension (above or below) but it is a non-trendy type day and the market is unsure about the LTRO operation tomorrow.

The EURUSD fell on the Case Schiller data (risk off) but the buyers showed up against the 50% of the days range and the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The  last intraday lows were also at the level.  Activity remains two way it seems for the pair as the market awaits the LTRO tomorrow. The 100 bar MA is at 1.3441. Traders will watch this level for intraday clues.

S&P Case-Shiller Numbers

S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA:

• Survey: -0.35%, Actual:-0.50%, Prior: =0.70%, Revised: -0.74%

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY

• Survey: -3.65%, Actual: -3.99%, Prior: -3.67%, Revised:-3.85%

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YOY

• Survey: -4.30%, Actual: -4.03%, Prior: -3.90%, Revised: -3.70%

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price

• Survey: 137.11, Actual: 136.71, Prior: 138.49, Revised: 138.24

S%P/Case-Shiller US HPI

• Actual: 125.67, Prior: 130.39, Revised: 130.66

The foreclosure hangover continues to be a problem according to officials

The EURUSD has been chopping around after the weaker Durables data. The price has support at the 1.3435 and resistance at 1.3455. The range for the EURUSD is narrow today at 72 pips. This leaves the door open for an extension of the range in NY trading.

Good Morning:

The Greek sage continues:

S&P cuts Greece’s rating to “selective default” from CC.  This was expected once the debt swaps started.  S&P sees the Greek debt plan as nothing but a distressed restructuring.
Markets reacted positively to the initial news that the German Parliament voted in favor of the aid package to Greece.  It seems that the German courts may have a challenge to this aid package-we will see what happens in due time.

In US economic data Durable goods tumbled 4%-a dreadful report.  Durable goods data is always volatile-but this will be a hard number to overcome.

World equity and US Futures are higher.
Gold and silver are higher-while oil is stable.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The numbers were weak across the board.  They are guessing that the expiration of a tax incentive allowing full depreciation of equiptment purchases may have led to the sharp decline in January as purchases were front loaded in 2011.  The fall ex transportaton of -3.2% was the most since October 2010.  Civil aircraft orders fell 19%.  Orders for non defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell by 4.5%. This is thought to be an indication of overall  business investment.

All in all, a disappointment as the New Year and quarter got started.

They were expecting 0.5% and 2.1% respectively

Durable Goods Orders:   Survey:  -1.0%    Actual: -4.0%    Prior: 3.0%  Revised: 3.2%

Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey: 0.0%   Actual:  -3.2%   Prior:  2.1%   Revised: 2.1%

The ranges overnight are generally narrow in comparison to the 20 day averages with the dollar down against most of the currency pairs.  Traders may look to extend the ranges in the NY session so be aware.  The EURUSD increased on the eve of the next phase of the LTRO on the thought that the operation is risk supportive and the EURUSD is a risk currency pair (at least that is the story). Whether or not an additional 400, 500, 600  billion or 1 trillion of liquidity (there is no limit) is good or not will not be decided until the tomorrow.   What is known is the 1st piece of liquidity was successful in reducing sovereign debt fears and lowered bond yields in the Eurozone and was a boost (at least initially) for the EURUSD.  However, when the US embarked on it’s quanitative easing, the dollar fell.  So risk will be increased and traders can expect volatile market conditions.   The estimate is for 470 billion Euros ($631 billion) according to a Bloomberg survey.  In the last operation they gave banks 489 billion euros.  In other news out of the EU, S&P said Greek was in selective default following their insertion of collective action clauses in some sovereign debt documentation. EU Business Climate indicator came in weaker at -0.18 vs -0.15 expectations.  Services Confidence came in at -0.9 vs -0.6 exp, Consumer Confidence came in at -20.3 vs -20.2 exp, and Industrial Confidence came in at -5.8 vs -6.9 exp.  German inflation numbers are being released from the different regions with most showing elevated increases of 0.8% MoM, the expectations is for a 0.5% increase.  Japan Retail Trade grew by a larger than expected 4.1% MoM vs 1% last.  The  USDJPY initially declined on the news but then rallied back higher. The EURJPY tested the 100 hour MA on the decline and found buyers at the key technical level (see chart).  In the UK the CPI reported retail sales  at -2 vs expectations of -12. The GBPUSD rallied after falling to the 50% retracement of the Friday sharp move higher.  The AUDUSD is mired in a month long non trending range and is back near the topside resistance area.  Last week, the price tested the bottom end (actually made a new low for the month) but could not muster additional selling pressure.  The other commodity currency pairs NZDUSD and USDCAD are in similar chart patterns.  A breakout will be eyed for these pairs that could lead to a trend move. US Durable Good Orders will be released at 8:30 with expectatations of -1% with 0.0% for ex Transportation. S&P Home Sales for the top 20 cities are expected to show -3.65%.  US Consumer Confidence (63 vs 61.1 last) and Richmond Fed (14 vs 12) are expected at 10 AM ET.  Feds Duke speaks at 10. SNBs Jordan speaks at 12:30 PM ET.

The 1.3409 level  is the 100 hour MA . The 38.2% of the leg down to the downside comes in at the 1.3403 level.  This is intraday resistance for the pair.

The YoY rose by 10.3%.

Pending Home Sales are a precursor to Existing Home Sales as they represent contracts signed.  The better employment situation in the US is triggering the better tone in the housing market. Interest rates are low. Prices are down and combined with better employment is the recipe for buying.

The better data has helped push the USDJPY back higher with the pair testing the underside of the broken trendline at the 80.399 currently. Staying below that level keeps the bears in charge. A move above could lead to further buying intraday.

US PENDING HOME SALES HIGHER

• Survey: 1.0%, Actual: 2.0%, Previous: -3.5%, Revision: -1.9%

The USDJPY has moved below the 100 hour MA for the first time since February 3rd at the 80.30 level. The price has also moved below a trendline support line at the 80.38 level. These levels will now be eyed as topside resistance today. The 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) will now be target support for the pair. That level comes in at the 79.688 level. The 38.2% of the rally up from the Feb 1 low comes in at the 79.499 level.

Interim support may come in at the low from last Thursdays trading at the 79.85 area. The 100 hour MA was tested at this level and the level also corresponded with the high from Feb 21.

The USDJPY has moved steadily higher over the month of  February with 13 of 18 trading days moving higher. Today is the largest 1 day decline for the pair over that time period.

• Road is long and not without risk
• EU commission will boost control measures in Greece
• IMF role is indespensible and is a precondition for Germany
• Greece exit would come with unforeseeable risks
• She urges the lawmakers to pass the second bailout

The German Parliament is debating the bailout of Greece.  A vote is expected in a few hours.

The EURUSD has continued the move lower in  early NY trading and has moved down to test the trendline support at the 1.3370 level.  There should be some intraday buying against the trendline which extends up from the Feb 16th low, with stops on a break below.

A move below this level will target the spike high from last Thursday at the 1.3341 level and below that the 100 hour MA at the 1.3320 level currently (see chart above).

On the topside the market will be eyeing  the 1.34097 which is the 38.2% of the move down from the last leg down (see chart below).  Staying below this level will keep the bears firmly in charge as skepticism from last weeks gains, fades.

The 100 day MA comes in at the 1.3305 level today. Last week the price moved above this MA for the 1st time since October 31st 2011 and moved higher.  A move back below this key moving average will be a failure.  Keep this level in mind as the trading progresses this week.

Good Morning:

The markets is full of jitters today:  Is it the Iranian oil situation dragging on global growth prospects-or the lackluster G-20 meeting?  Either way-equities, oil, gold are all lower this morning.
At the G-20 meeting, the group indicated that Europe needs to strengthen their bailout program.  Germany has been a holdout in approving more funds for the European bailout program.
The G-20 did not offer their assistance-but called on Europe to increase their bailout program.  Many analysts feel that Europe does not need outside funding-but leadership by the stronger nations in the EU.

World equities are lower-as are US Futures.
Gold, silver and oil are all lower this morning.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The G20 over the weekend deferred aid to Europe until the details of the European rescue fund can be decided. That fund, which is looking to combine the funds left in the Europeans Stability Mechanism (or ESM) into the European Facility Stability Fund (or EFSF), would create a 1 trillion dollar pool of resources that would then be combined with an additional 1 trillion from the IMF, to put a ring or firewall around the troubled nations within the EU.  The implementation still requires Germany’s well wishes as well as others coming together including Greece itself. They still need the approval of their proposed debt restructuring with the Private Sector (so called PSI) which calls for a 53% haircut on existing debt. Moody’s chief economist said that implementation risks for reform remain very high.  So although steps were made last week that sent the EURUSD to the highest levels since December 1st on Friday (at 1.3485), the new week is starting with a move lower in the pair. The price is back below the 50% of the move down from the October 2011 high to the January low (at the 1.34344 level).  Staying below that level today, will be eyed by the bears today.  In Australia, PM  Julia Gillard retained her position after soundly defeating former PM Rudd.  The AUDUSD has moved lower on the day but has recovered some of the losses.  The pair remains in consolidation range since the beginning of the month.  The dollar overall moved higher against all the major currencies except the Japanese Yen.  The USDJPY has been moving higher with 13 of 17 days in the month of February moving to the upside.  Today, the price nearly reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from the 2011 high at the 81.708 level (high reached 80.645), before finding wiling sellers.  The  price decline is the steepest since the beginning of the rally on February 1st and has seen the price move back down to test the 100 hour MA at the 80.30 level currently. This level will be eyed in the NY session today. A move below could lead to some further selling pressure. US Pending Home sales will be released at 8:30 AM today with expectations of a 1% gain vs a 3.5% decline last month.

The Forex Week Ahead webinar will be held at 9:30 AM today. To register please go to: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/442410992

Eur/Usd up about 10 pips to 1.3464 on news.

I will review the key releases and events in “The Forex Week Ahead” webinar, Monday at 9:30 AM ET.

To register, click here: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/442410992

oilusd continue to rise breaking through this channel.