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The EURJPY today has triggered a correction wave for the pair after a week long rally. The price moved and closed above the 100 day MA yesterday for the 1st time since October 28th 2011, but has dipped back below the MA level (at 102.867) . The move down todya has also moved below the 38.2% Fibo level (this was also broken yesterday) at the 102.546 level.

On the hourly chart below the price dipped below the trendline support as well (see chart below). The next key target on the downside is the 38.2% and 100 hour MA at the 101.96 level. This should be a key support level for the pair. A break below would open the pair for further corrective momentum. Holding the level, keeps the bias positive despite the disappointment on the daily.

Bernanke downbeat on housing in comments

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 09:33 AM PST

Housing remains out of synch
Tight mortage wont be eased quickly nor easily
Serious imbalances in houseing
Housing may no longer be considered a secure investment
Foreclosure rate likely to continue
Fed has a keen interest in the housing market.

EURGBP corrects 50% of move down. GBPUSD finds profit takers against the weeks lows

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 07:59 AM PST

The EURGBP found good support against the 38.2% and 100 hour MA earlier today at the 0.8348-50 area. The price has sicne pushed quickly higher and tested the midpoint of that move down a 0.8377. Now what? Sellers have come in against the level and pushed the EURGBPU back down. In conjunction with that move the GBPUSD has seemed to have found some support against the low for the week at the 1.5729 level. The GBPUSD has moved back into the range that the pair stayed in from mid November to February, so that is a disappointment. This will likely lead to sellers on rallies toward the 1.5765 (low from earlier today) to 1.5778 (38.2% of the move down – see chart below) area today.

EURUSD pausing near key support. Tension.

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 07:32 AM PST

The pair has moved down and in NY but has started to find support against the 200 hour and 50% of the weeks range. The last dip down stopped at 1.3173 increasing the importance of the level. On the topside, the 38.2% of the move down in NY comes in at the 1.32049 level and this price will be eyed closely by market traders on a test.

I feel a tension in the market and it seems another move is forthcoming.

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-02-10T07:25:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

USDJPY finds profit takers against the 50% retracement level
USDCHF moves back above 100 day MA
A technical look at the EURUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY and more
Greek PM to decide on Laos resignations before cabinet meeting later today
The Laos ministers offers resignation from coalition government
EURUSD slows decline at the weeks midpoint
The US Trade Deficit widest since 2008
Canada Trade Improves, US a Touch Lower Than Survey
The Forex overnight review
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.10.2012
EURUSD head lower on Greek concerns. Risk off in the AUDUSD as RBA cuts GDP/CPI estimates
US and Canada Trade Balance Data Due at 8:30AM
Greek Laos Party leader says cannot vote for the bailout agreement
Greek MP Stasinos resigns in protest of austerity package, according to sources.
According to sources, German Fin. Minister says IMF may be ready to take part in Greek aid package.

USDJPY finds profit takers against the 50% retracement level

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 07:12 AM PST

The USDJPY has continued the rally higher today and reached the next target for the pair against the 77.77 level. This is the 50% retracement of the move down from the post intervention high from October 31st 2011 to the low reached earlier this month. This week the price in the USDJPY has ratcheted higher through the 100 day MA, the 38.2% retracement, and now up to the 50% retracement. Having the 50% level there does give traders a reason to sell today into the weekend risk. Bulls on the gains this week, would not like to the see the price break back below the 38.2 retracement level at the 77.35 level. The 77.37 area is also support on the hourly chart below (trendline). Closer support comes in at the at the 77.51 area which is the low for the day (see chart below).

Although there is fundamental reasons to see a rebound in the USDJPY, the pair has not been able to sustain rallies. Traders are fully aware of this and it therefore often leads to quick disappointment if targets to the upside are not breached. Hence it is prudent to be aware of the key technical levels and don’t be afraid to take some profit along the way.

On a break of the 50% the next key target would be the 200 day MA (green line in the daily chart above) at the 78.06 level. The price has not closed above the 200 day MA since April 2011.

USDCHF moves back above 100 day MA

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 06:49 AM PST

THe USDCHF had been consolidating around the 100 day MA for the last 11 trading days. Over that time the price traded above and below the level on 9 of 11 days. The last two trading days closed below the 100 day MA and should have been a trigger for increased downside momentum. The price did dip to new 2 month lows but today has seen a move back to and above the key MA level.

The level comes in at 0.9177 today. A close above this level would twist the bias back to the upside for the USDCHF

A technical look at the EURUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY and more

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 06:38 AM PST

Greek PM to decide on Laos resignations before cabinet meeting later today

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 06:15 AM PST

The Laos ministers offers resignation from coalition government

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 05:48 AM PST

The leader of the Laos party had earlier said that they would not vote for the bailout agreement. What is unclear is if the resignation of the ministers, now allow for a two party coalition to vote for and approve the austerity measures? The initial reaction is for a move below the key 50% week retracement and the 200 hour MA. That level comes in at 1.31738. With the price below, the bias continues its bearish bias.

EURUSD slows decline at the weeks midpoint

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 05:43 AM PST

The 50% of the move up this week and 200 hour MA at the 1.3173 level was tested (and breached) but the price has moved back above level. One has to be mindful of the failure on the break. Traders will be eyeing the level for continued support now. Risk is limited against the level.

The US Trade Deficit widest since 2008

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 05:35 AM PST

The US trade gap widened to the highest level since 2008.
Import were at the highest levels since July 2008 (+1.7% MoM) on Capital Good Demand (highest on record)
Export increased 0.7%
Price adjusted deficit used for GDP widened to 47.7 billion form 47

When the deficit widens it is a subtraction from GDP.

China deficit -23.135 vs -26.872
Japan -6.541B vs -6.207B
EU deficit -9.630B vs -9.728B
Canada -3.877B vs -3.025B
Mexico -4.946 vs -5.514B

Canada Trade Improves, US a Touch Lower Than Survey

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 05:32 AM PST

Trade Balance: Survey: -48.5B Actual: -48.8B Prior: -47.8B Revised: -47.1B

Canada

Trade Balance: Survey: -0.80B Actual: 2.69B Prior: 1.07B Revised: 1.17B

The Forex overnight review

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 05:27 AM PST

The EU/IMF also made it clear that without the desired cuts and without full agreement from the 3 parties in the ruling party, they would not approve the 130 billion
tranche. In early NY trade today, the Laos Party leader(the smallest of the 3 parties in Greece) said they could not vote “for” the austerity package and as a result, the EURUSD had
moved below the 100 hour MA , and 38.2% retracement. The next key target for the pair would be the 50% and 200 hour MA at the 1.31738 level. A move below this level is needed to keep the pressure to the downside. Failure to breach the level will give the dip buyers another opportunity to buy on sale with limited/defined risk. The vote on the austerity program is scheduled for Sunday and although there is a majority, the demands from the EU/IMF that all three parties agree, may still stop the troika money from being released. It is never easy.
In other EURO area news, German CPI fell by 0.4% which was as expected. The YoY measure of 2.3% equaled last months value and is at the lowest level since March 2011. With dual 0.5% increases from last year coming off in the next 2 months, it will likely send German inflation below 2%. This will give the ECB room to ease if a slowing economy warrants.
China Trade Balance rose sharply to 27.2 b but was likely distorted by a 4 day holiday in China. The Yuan rose to the highest level in 18 months against the dollar. China officials will be heading to Washington next week and rising the currency may be as much a reaction to that trip.
IN Australia the RBA cut GDP and CPI targets in 2012. They now see 2012 growth expanding by 3.5% from 4% in 2012. As far as inflation, they estimate CPI inflation to come in at 3% in 2012 vs previous estimate of 3.25%. The news along with “Risk Off” flows from Greece has sent the AUDUSD down from its 6 month high levels
US Trade Balance is due at-48.5 B vs -47.8B last month.
The Univ of Mich Confidence is expected to dip to 74.8 from 75.
In Canada, the their Trade balance is expected to dip to 0.80b from 1.07B last month.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.10.2012

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 05:24 AM PST

Good Morning:

The Greek saga continues:

The Euro, commodity and equity markets all took a turn south as we await the results of this weekend’s vote by Greek politicians.
In the latest news, Greece’s far right Laos party stated that they cannot vote for the bailout package. If it binds Greece for 50 years-the Laos party will not endorse the package.
It now appears that the Greek initiatives to shrink their budget will not be sufficient for the EU and IMF. The civil servants union-ADEDY has called a 48 hour strike (again). Mass transit is virtually stopped-and hospital doctors and bank employees are also on strike.

What a mess- The markets may be rocky and spotty the next few sessions.

Equity markets worldwide are lower-as are futures.
Gold,Silver, Oil and most of the commodity world are lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND &GOOD LUCK

EURUSD head lower on Greek concerns. Risk off in the AUDUSD as RBA cuts GDP/CPI estimates

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 05:19 AM PST

US and Canada Trade Balance Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 05:04 AM PST

Greek Laos Party leader says cannot vote for the bailout agreement

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 04:13 AM PST

The comment sends the EURUSD down and through the 100 hour MA as the headline risk from Greece continues today in early NY trading

Greek MP Stasinos resigns in protest of austerity package, according to sources.

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 02:27 AM PST

According to sources, German Fin. Minister says IMF may be ready to take part in Greek aid package.

Posted: 10 Feb 2012 02:26 AM PST

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-02-09T07:16:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

US Wholesales Inventories Prove Positive 1.0% vs Survey of 0.4%, Prior of 0.1%
NY Morning Forex Commentary for Feb 9th 2012
EURUSD showing the effects of headline risk
Portugal says 3rd review of Troika loan program to start Feb 15th
Draghi sees tentative signs of stabilization; Inflation broadly balanced
Initial Claims better than expected.ECB Draghi awaited
Canadian New Housing Price Index, USDCAD at .9952
US Jobless Claims Move Lower to 358K
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.9.2012
BOE adds 50 Billion QE. ECB keeps rates unchanged. Draghi awaited
FT Breaking News: Greek Politicians Have Reached Austerity Deal
Greek Party officials have reached an austerity deal
Overnight review
ECB Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged at 1.00%
Canada Housing Price Index & US Jobless Claims Data at 8:30AM

US Wholesales Inventories Prove Positive 1.0% vs Survey of 0.4%, Prior of 0.1%

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 07:00 AM PST

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Feb 9th 2012

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 06:54 AM PST

Video Pending

EURUSD showing the effects of headline risk

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 06:10 AM PST

The EURUSD has been spiking up and down over the last hour of trading (see chart above) as headlines from Greece (austerity deal reached) and comments from Draghi has the market traders on edge. This is not unusual. Event risk is high. Market risk is always presents and Liquidity risk is also high as traders play it safe. The Midpoint of the days trading range today comes in at 1.32625. The 200 bar MA is 1.3266. The bias is a touch more bullish as prices are up on the day. On the hourly chart the price consolidation is currently within a neutral area between 1.3284 and 1.3248. A move outside the will have traders looking for momentum in the direction of the break (see chart above).

On the daily chart, keep the 1.3332 level in mind. This is the 100 day MA. The price has not been above this MA since the end of October 2011. On the downside a close below the 1.3242 level (38.2% of the move down from the August high would not be a welcome sign for the bulls.

Portugal says 3rd review of Troika loan program to start Feb 15th

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:58 AM PST

Draghi sees tentative signs of stabilization; Inflation broadly balanced

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:35 AM PST

Economy faces downside risks
Non standard measures are temporary
Real GDP growth likely very weak in 4th Quarter
Stress in fin mkts has diminished as a result of steps taken by ECB
Low rates support Euro economy
No longer sees substantial downside risk.
Price pressures should be limited due to weak Euro growth
Inflation risk broadly balanced
Impact of LTRO on bank funding is still unfolding
Fiscal discipline, structural reforms essential
All countries must stick to fiscal targets
Declines to comment on how Greek holdings to be treated
ECB will take more risk in regard to collateral
ECB did not discuss a change in rates today
Level of LTRO should be similar to the 1st (to take place Feb 29th)

Initial Claims better than expected.ECB Draghi awaited

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:33 AM PST

Canadian New Housing Price Index, USDCAD at .9952

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:31 AM PST

New Housing Price Index (MoM)

Survey: 0.2%, Actual: 0.1% ,Prior: 0.3%

New Housing Price Index (YoY)

Survey: 2.5%, Actual: 2.5%,Prior: 2.5

US Jobless Claims Move Lower to 358K

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:30 AM PST

Jobless Claims: Survey: 370K Actual: 358K Prior: 367K Revised: 373K

Continuing Claims: Survey: 3500K Actual: 3515K Prior: 3437K Revised: 3451K

EUR/USD continues to move higher on Greek austerity deal news.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.9.2012

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:24 AM PST

Good Morning:

The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 1%-which was highly expected by market participants.
The BOE also left interest rates unchanged at .5%-and will increase their QE asset purchases.

The European Troika gave Greece an additional 15 days to find 300 million euros of pension cuts. This seems to be a major stumbling block, and the process will be stalled until this issue is taken care of.

The ECB left interest rates unchanged-as the ECB is taking a “wait and see” approach to the Greek bailout deal.
Greek leaders could not come up with a full austerity plan-and the Greek Finance Minister is on his way to Brussels. He was expected in Brussels to meet with EU leaders with a completed plan-he now goes to plead his countries case-Again-to EU leaders.

Gold, Silver and gold are all higher.

Asian equity markets were lower-Europe is flat-US Futures are higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

BOE adds 50 Billion QE. ECB keeps rates unchanged. Draghi awaited

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:14 AM PST

FT Breaking News: Greek Politicians Have Reached Austerity Deal

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:12 AM PST

Statement expected shortly. Government source corroborated FT report.

Greek political leaders agree on austerity measures with EU/IMF lenders according to a government source.

Greek Party officials have reached an austerity deal

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:12 AM PST

According to headline in the FT. No other details cited

The EURUSD has moved higher on the news.

Overnight review

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:11 AM PST

In the UK, the BOE added 50 billion GBP of QE (they call it the Asset Purchase Facility) to a total of 325 Billion. The purchases will take another 3 months. They cited slightly weaker economy in the 4th quarter and slowing inflation which should cause inflation to undershoot the 2% in the medium term. The GBPUSD has moved higher and the EURGBP lower as traders buy GBP on the decision. The GBPUSD is at the highs for the day and has retraced 61.8% of the decline from yesterday’s trade. The EURGBP moves toward the 100 and 200 hour MA at 0.8326 (see chart above). This will be a key level for traders today. In other UK data released today, Indust. Prod (+0.5% vs +0.2% exp) and Man. Prod. (+1% vs +0.2% exp) came in better than expected. The UK Trade deficit also showed improvement. The ECB kept rates unchanged at their meeting today. ECB Draghi speaks at 8:30 AM. There still is no Greek deals overnight. A Euro official said overnight that Greece has until Sunday to find 300 million of cuts for 2012. In a continuation of the absurd, Greek PM Papademos has insisted on revising budget targets for 2014. He informed European negotiator only today. As a result, debt sustainability
reports from Troika have to be revised. It was also announced that the once 50B from public assets has been
toned down to 19 billion. It is hard to sell assets in a country that is falling apart. Greek unemployment rose
to 20.9% from 18.2% in October. Industrial Production fell by -11.3% in December vs -7.8% in November. Today the Initial Claims will be released at 8:30 with 370 exp vs 367k last week. Wholesale inventories will be released at 10 AM ET with estimates of 0.4% vs 0.1% last month. In Canada New Housing Price index is due at 8:30 wit expectations of 0.2% vs 0.3%. The market will be interested in hearing what Draghi has to say at his press conference at 8:30 AM. WIth inflation expected to fall in coming months as data drops out of the calculation, will he signal additional easing down the road. This will make the cheap money give
away at the end of February (LTRO tranche) even cheaper. .

ECB Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged at 1.00%

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 05:00 AM PST

Canada Housing Price Index & US Jobless Claims Data at 8:30AM

Posted: 09 Feb 2012 04:42 AM PST

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-02-08T07:42:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

GBPUSD liquidates lower
A Forex Quick look at the EURUSD
GBPUSD tests trend line/Fibonacci support
Forex Basics Webinar TODAY 4:00PM: Understanding Moving Averages
EURUSD tests channel support at 1.3249
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.8.2012
ECB sources: Final decision on Greek debt likely next week
USDJPY finds sellers at the 100 day MA
GBPUSD tested key resistance overnight
Canada Housing Starts Improve
Greece hope keeps the EURUSD up. USDJPY tests 100 day MA
The overnight review
Canada Housing Starts Data Due at 8:15AM
Irish PM Kenny says Ireland is close to a budget deficit.
Risk Sentiment Higher

GBPUSD liquidates lower

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 07:39 AM PST

Stops were triggered below the 1.5840 level and the 100 hour MA did not even hold the decline. Longs are caught in the pair with EURGBP helping to keep the pressure on the GBP as it continues to move higher. Resistance in the GBPUSD is now at the 100 hour MA at the 1.58245 level.

A Forex Quick look at the EURUSD

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 07:35 AM PST

GBPUSD tests trend line/Fibonacci support

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 07:26 AM PST

The GBPUSD is down testing key support against the 61.8% of the move up from yesterday and trendline support (on the hourly chart above). The market should find support against the level on the test. The catalyst for the decline is actually a rise in the EURGBP. The EURGBP has been moving higher today after moving above the 200 hour MA yesterday. Today, the price held support and moved higher off that level.

Forex Basics Webinar TODAY 4:00PM: Understanding Moving Averages

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 07:11 AM PST

Forex Basics Webinar TODAY 4:00PM: Understanding Moving Averages with Shawn Powell and Jason Galano from FXDD. Its free to attend and everyone can benefit from this class. Register now

EURUSD tests channel support at 1.3249

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 06:26 AM PST

The EURUSD is testnng support at the 1.3249 level. A move below this level opens the door for a test of the low from yesterday afternoon at the 1.3231. Other targets are the 38.2% of the move up at the 1.3212 level.

The range for the EURUSD is only 48 pips today. I would expect that the range will be extended at some point. The low for the day is 1.3240. The high is 1.32876.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.8.2012

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:57 AM PST

Good Morning:

The Greek saga continues-as the markets await Greek prime Minister Papademos is again set to meet in Athens to discuss and hopefully come to an agreement over the debt crisis in his country. The scheduled meeting has been delayed-which is hardly a surprise to anyone

In US political news-Rick Santorum, Former US Senator of Pennslyvania swept all 3 Republican primary contests last night. This has certainly made the race a different animal.. Life will be difficult for Newt Gingrich now-and does this show that Mitt Romney does not have the support of the American Mid West. I am sure that President Obama was very happy with the results-as this shows an even further divided Republican party-and that will be very helpful for the re election of the incumbent President.

World equity markets and US Futures are higher.

Oil is trading just under $100/bar.

ECB sources: Final decision on Greek debt likely next week

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:42 AM PST

The ECB is reported to have come to an agreement in principle

USDJPY finds sellers at the 100 day MA

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:41 AM PST

The USDJPY moved higher last night. Contributing to the rise was a report that the Current Account surplus came in lower than expectations. This helped weaken the Yen and move the USDJPY higher. However, the pair found willing sellers on the run up against the key 100 day MA.That level came in at the 77.15 level. The high came in at 77.179 (see blue line in the chart above).

Selling against the key technical level forced the pair back lower where it found support against the 38.2% of the move up from last weeks low. That level came in at 76.74. The low came in at 75.702. The price is now trading near the underside of the channel trendline (see chart below) at the 76.88 level. A move above this level should lead to more buying support for the pair. However, I would expect that the sellers against the key 100 day MA (at 77.15) will keep a lid on rallies for the time being at least.

GBPUSD tested key resistance overnight

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:16 AM PST

The GBPUSD moved up to key topside resistance overnight against the 50% retracement and the 200 day MA at the 1.5924 and 1.5937 levels respectively. The inability to extend higher led to a quick sell off during the London morning sesssion that took the price from the high at 1.5927 to the low at 1.5868. The 38.2% of the move up from yesterday’s low came in at 1.5873. When the price stalled at the level, the market started to form a base against the level. It currently trades in the middle of the range.

Trader’s who are long will likely take solace that the 38.2% found support buyers. However, that resistance against the 50% and the 200 day MA will be a big hurdle to overcome. Hence, I would look for any rallies toward the 1.5924-37 area to find intraday sellers. A break of the 38.2% would likely see more selling.

Canada Housing Starts Improve

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:14 AM PST

Canada Housing Starts: Survey: 194.0K Actual: 197.9K Prior: 200.2K Revised: 199.9K

USD/CAD moves a touch lower on the news.

Greece hope keeps the EURUSD up. USDJPY tests 100 day MA

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:10 AM PST

The overnight review

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:08 AM PST

EU leaders “hoped” for a concrete conclusion to Greek political leaders meeting on Wednesday (that is today).
There was comment out of EFSF that they will probably play significant role in PSI and Greek programme. The
Bundesbank said that German exposure with haircuts is not critical. An economic “think Tank” said that German taxpayers may face a 25 bln Euro hit on Greek sovereign debt. Finally out of Greece there was a report that budget revenues were found lagging by a considerable 1 billion Euros in the 1st month. According to the report revenues posted a 7% decline compared with January 2011. The budget had targetted a 8.9% annual increase. The reported also said that VAT receipts posted an 18.7% decline in January compared to a year ago. The recession is not getting better but worse and more cuts on the way. In other news out of Europe, Germany’s Trade Balance worsened to 14.1 B surplus from 14.9B last month, but was better than expectations (13.9 B). However, both exports and imports showed declines (-4.3% and -3.9% respectively). This suggests a weaker German economy. Japan’s Current Account surplus came in weaker at 63T and this helped to weaken the JPY (increase the USDJPY) but that gains has not been sustained and the pair is opening the NY sesssion near yesterday’s closing level. The USDJPY reached the 100 day MA on the move higher (at 77.145. HIgh reached 77.17) but was not able to sustain any momentum above this key technical level. Swiss employment came in as expected at 3.1%. The EURCHF has gotten a boost from chatter from SNB’s Jordan yesterday that they remain committed to maintaining support at the 1.2000 floor. In economic data today, US Mortgage Applications already came out and showed at 7.5% increase from the previous week. Canada has Housing Starts for January due out at 8:15 AM. The expectations is for a decline to 194.0k from 199.9k last month. Yesterday, Building Permits rose by a surprising 11.1%.. NZD Unemployment comes out at 4:45 PM today w/ a gain of 0.4%. At 8:30 PM China CPI is due with 4% vs 4.1% YoY expected.

Canada Housing Starts Data Due at 8:15AM

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 04:40 AM PST

Irish PM Kenny says Ireland is close to a budget deficit.

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 02:57 AM PST

Adds that austerity alone will not close the deficit.

Risk Sentiment Higher

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 01:33 AM PST

Equities are up a touch with Dow futures +40; Euro is trading off session highs. In the case of the Euro vs. the JPY, the pair has been trading in a tight range for most of the night, unable to break above the 102.42 high.

If we can break through hourly resistance we look to the daily chart for the next topside target which comes in at 102.569.

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-02-07T07:47:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EURUSD looks to test the 9 day high
Bernanke on the Wires with Similar Dialogue to Last Week’s House Panel
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTs Job Openings both Higher
USDJPY finds sellers against retracement level
EURUSD moves higher on Greek statement (Again)
Canada permits send the USDCAD lower
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.7.2012
Canada Building Permits Surge
Reserve Bank of Australia surprises the market. Dollar gains vs EURUSD but gains contained
Canada Building Permits Due at 8:30AM
SNB’s Jordan says “won’t tolerate” CHF breaching 1.20 against the Euro.
German Industrial Production (Dec) -2.9% vs. 0.0% expected.
German deputy Fin. Minster says Germany and France are not trying to push Greece from the EMU.
EUR/USD re-tests 1.3167
PIMCO says a hard landing for China is only a “tail-risk scenario”.

EURUSD looks to test the 9 day high

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 07:21 AM PST

The EURUSD is moving closer and closer to the 9 day high at the 1.3226 level. Traders who are long will likely sell against the level but a move above should not be faded. The price has been in a 201 pip trading range for the last 9 days of trading.

The price has been buoyed by the apparent agreement within the Greek coalition. This will free up 130 billion tranche from the EU/IMF which will allow for the interest payment due in March. Support at eh 1.3176-84 level now.

Bernanke on the Wires with Similar Dialogue to Last Week’s House Panel

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 07:03 AM PST

Says:

Labor market has ‘improved modestly’
Senate remarks same as Feb 2nd house testimony
Interest rates to stay low through 2014
Calls pace of recovery ‘frustratingly slow’
Fed expects inflation to ‘remain subdued’
Fiscal policy must be put on ‘sustainable path’
‘Long way to go’ before job market running normally

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTs Job Openings both Higher

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 07:00 AM PST

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: Survey: 48.6 Actual: 49.4 Prior: 47.5

JOLTs Job Openings: Survey: 3250 Actual: 3376 Prior: 3161 Revised: 3118

USDJPY finds sellers against retracement level

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 06:15 AM PST

The USDJPY tested the 38.2% of the move down from the January 24th high to the low reached on February 1st. That level comes in at the 76.879 level. The high today reached 76.85 and has backed off. The next support level comes in at the trendline at the 76.65 level. Below that the 200 hour MA at the 76.55 level is the next target. The pair was supported today on the official word that the BOJ did in fact intervene in the market (13.2 billion). The intervention occurred on October 31st. On that day the low for the USDJPY was 75.56 and the high reached 79.52. The price has since moved down to the lowest level since that intervention at the 76.017 level. BOJ Shirakawa amd Finance Minister Azumi has each stated recently that they won’t rule out any action to curb the rise including intervention.

EURUSD moves higher on Greek statement (Again)

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:41 AM PST

The market is clearly trading with short term intentions in place. Markets are sloppy. The market moved quickly to the upside on yet another comment about a Greek bailout. Because of the headline effect it seems that the real movers in the EURUSD market are simply waiting for the dust to all settle. This helps contribute to the up and down action.

Nevertheless the EURUSD has moved above the previous high for the day above 1.3167 and looks toward the next target at the 1.3184 area. The high from last week came in at the 1.3226 level. Other highs during the week were at 1.3217, 1.3211 and 1.3204. These will also be targets above.

On the downside the 100 and 200 hour MA have converged at the 1.3130 level and this will now be support for intraday traders.

Recognize the markets are sloppy and therefore deserve being patient for risk defined entries. At those points, the market will work for you or you get out. The best way to define risk is still technical levels. Keep stops in place and be prepared for a bumpy ride.

Canada permits send the USDCAD lower

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:38 AM PST

The Building Permits is at the highest level in 4 1/2 years after a surprising 11.1% gain (expected 1%). The USDCAD has moved lower on the news and pushed back below the 100 hour MA at the 0.9973 level. Traders should use this level to sell against. The close from yesterday came in at the 0.9957. This is the next level to get through on the downside.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.7.2012

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:33 AM PST

Good Morning:

In an unexpected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia left their benchmark interest rates unchanged at 4.25%. With signs of growth in North America and Asia-the RBA opted to leave rates steady for the time being. The RBA will monitor the growth of the global economy, and will set their interest and monetary policy accordingly.

In other news-it seems that Greece is getting closer to an agreement with their creditors. We have heard this for the past few weeks-so when we get confirmation-I will let you know. In the meantime-European leaders are running out of patience for Greece to get their monetary policy in place.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking to Congress today-after last friday’s positive jobs data-will his tone be different? No likely.

Equity markets are lower-as are US Futures.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada Building Permits Surge

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:30 AM PST

Canada Building Permits: Survey: 1.0% Actual: 11.1% Prior: -3.6% Revised: -2.6%

Reserve Bank of Australia surprises the market. Dollar gains vs EURUSD but gains contained

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:18 AM PST

Canada Building Permits Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:02 AM PST

SNB’s Jordan says “won’t tolerate” CHF breaching 1.20 against the Euro.

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 03:15 AM PST

SNB ready to take further measures if needed.
Further escalation of Euro crisis is “main risk”.
Swiss economy to cool “considerably” in 2012.
SNB “more than ever” committed to defending cap.
Policy has been absolutely credible to markets.
Franc remains “very strong”.
CHF should weaken “over time”.
“Downside risks” prevail.
Can’t allow Franc to appreciate further.

EUR/CHF was relatively unaffected by the release.

German Industrial Production (Dec) -2.9% vs. 0.0% expected.

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 03:01 AM PST

German deputy Fin. Minster says Germany and France are not trying to push Greece from the EMU.

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 01:39 AM PST

EUR/USD re-tests 1.3167

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 12:55 AM PST

The Euro made a run up earlier with no confirmed reason why other than reports that there was a large Asian player making large purchases. The pair found resistance at 1.3167, Sunday’s high.

PIMCO says a hard landing for China is only a “tail-risk scenario”.

Posted: 07 Feb 2012 12:40 AM PST

Sees China’s policy easing “less aggressive” than in 2008.

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-02-06T07:12:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Canada Ivey Purchasing Manager Better at 64.1 vs 59.7 Survey and Prior of 63.5
GBPUSD breaks above trend line resistance
Bullard expects high employment for a while
Greek Government Official: Papendemos to meet with leaders tomorrow.
EURUSD moves back toward the days low
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.6.2012
No Greece PSI or austerity agreement sends the EURUSD lower.
EU says “we’re already beyond deadlines” on Greece.
German Factory Orders (Dec) 1.7% vs. 1.0% expected.
Eurozone gov’t debt at 87.4% of GDP in Q3 vs. 87.7% in Q2.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (Feb) -11.1 vs -15.0 expected.
Greek gov’t official says thereis no deadline on Monday for political leaders to respond to bailout terms.
EUR/USD testing resistance @ 1.30961.
UK HPI (Jan) 0.6% vs 0.1% expected (-0.9% prior).
2-6 Economic Calendar

Canada Ivey Purchasing Manager Better at 64.1 vs 59.7 Survey and Prior of 63.5

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 07:01 AM PST

GBPUSD breaks above trend line resistance

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 06:08 AM PST

The GBPUSD is moving above the trendline resistance against the 1.5768 level and will now look toward the 1.57867 Fibo Retracement level. Above that the 100 hour MA at the 1.5797 will be a target. A move above this MA willl not be welcomed by those looking for continued downside momentum today. The price tested the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) and found the expected buying interest.

Bullard expects high employment for a while

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 06:02 AM PST

Sees only a slow recovery in jobs market
Zero interest rate policy punishes savers
2% inflation target will serve the nation well
US suffered one time shock to wealth
THere is no value in letting inflation rise
Fed must keep inflation stable.

Greek Government Official: Papendemos to meet with leaders tomorrow.

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 05:55 AM PST

They were expected to meet today. The expectation is Papademos meets with Troika today.

EURUSD moves back toward the days low

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 05:31 AM PST

The EURUSD tested the 38.2% of the move down from the high on Friday and rotated back lower. The low from last week came in at the 1.3026 level. The low today came in at 1.3029. The range from last week was a narrow 201 pips. There were only 4 weeks in 2011 when the range was less than this amount. The expectation would be for a larger range this week. Therefore on a break of either range this week, look for momentum.

The next target on the downside on a break would be the 1.29958 level which is the 38.2% of the move up from the January low to the high at the end of the month.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.6.2012

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 05:24 AM PST

Good Morning:

I have returned after my knee surgery. The surgery went well-and now my job is to do physical therapy and get back up to speed.

I see that very little changed- Greece is still trying to work out their latest mess. The discussions between the parties regarding austerity measures to ensure the bailout funds for March (as Greece has a 14 billion payment due) are virtually at a stand still.
There needs to be agreement within the Papademos’ government regarding these new austerity and the restructuring of government programs and staffing.
EU officials are waiting for the Greek government to come to terms with the new package which includes “wage and pension reductions, along with job cuts and tougher tax enforcement programs”.

Asian equity markets were higher-but with no news out of Greece-European equity markets dropped lower-and US Futures are lower at this time.

Last night the NY Giants won the NFL Superbowl-and the big winners were the advertisers and networks. Commercials cost up to $3.5 million for a 30 second spot during the game.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

No Greece PSI or austerity agreement sends the EURUSD lower.

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 05:07 AM PST

EU says “we’re already beyond deadlines” on Greece.

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 03:53 AM PST

German Factory Orders (Dec) 1.7% vs. 1.0% expected.

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 03:00 AM PST

Eurozone gov’t debt at 87.4% of GDP in Q3 vs. 87.7% in Q2.

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 02:13 AM PST

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (Feb) -11.1 vs -15.0 expected.

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 01:35 AM PST

Greek gov’t official says thereis no deadline on Monday for political leaders to respond to bailout terms.

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 01:15 AM PST

EUR/USD testing resistance @ 1.30961.

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 12:10 AM PST

The Euro is firmer in recent trading as equities open up slightly higher; FTSE, CAC, and DAX all up over 1.5%. On the 15 minute chart the EUR/USD is testing the 38.2% fibo line; the next bullish target is 1.31095. If resistance holds we look back to the low of 1.30525.

UK HPI (Jan) 0.6% vs 0.1% expected (-0.9% prior).

Posted: 06 Feb 2012 12:01 AM PST

2-6 Economic Calendar

Posted: 05 Feb 2012 08:55 PM PST

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-02-04T07:16:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Week Ahead in Trading with Greg Michalowski & Shawn Powell this Monday at 9:30am
EURUSD short position falls 8% on the week: CFTC Commitment of Traders report
Feds Bullard says Fed may have to raise rates before 2014
EURAUD continues its fall to new lows
FT: Greece leaders oppose new austerity measures
EURUSD moves back above the weeks midpoint and buyers follow
GBPUSD expectations for additional QE revised lower
Swiss government spokesperson says Franc cap of at least 1.2000
EURUSD looking like a squeeze higher? Will be watching the 1.3126 level
Gold sells off on relief from US data.
AUDUSD moves to 6 month high

Week Ahead in Trading with Greg Michalowski & Shawn Powell this Monday at 9:30am

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 12:47 PM PST

Week Ahead in Trading with Greg Michalowski & Shawn Powell this Monday at 9:30am – Register now

EURUSD short position falls 8% on the week: CFTC Commitment of Traders report

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 12:31 PM PST

Feds Bullard says Fed may have to raise rates before 2014

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 11:39 AM PST

Strong data weakens case for QE.
He is a non voter on FOMC
Data surprising on the upside
Unemployment likely to fall to 7.8% this year.

EURAUD continues its fall to new lows

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 10:11 AM PST

The EURAUD has fallen sharply today as the AUD benefits from the stronger US data.The thought is if the global economy is going to get better, it will help the Australian economy the most. The EU meanwhile still has their problems to sort through and with austerity cuts likely to dominate, the may need help from a lower currency (that is the theory or story at least). The fall lower has so far had little in the way of a correction. The shorter term chart above, has flattened out, but with lower lows and lower highs still in place. A move above 1.2189 and thens 1.2208 is needed to get shorts concerned. From there, look for resistance at the 1.2222 level (38.2% of the move down today).

With the market making new lows today, where might there be a floor. Looking at the weekly chart, the bias remains decidely bearish. The price has a Fibonacci extension that measures out to the 1.20000 level. This would be a nice round number to shoot for. Below that level the 1.1861 is the bottom trendline support target.

FT: Greece leaders oppose new austerity measures

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 09:56 AM PST

A failure for Greece to approve austerity measures would likely lead to no money from Troika and Greek default in March.

This is the link to the story

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/76b31dcc-4e88-11e1-ada2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1lLJo4c4L

EURUSD moves back above the weeks midpoint and buyers follow

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 09:43 AM PST

The EURUSD moved above the midpoint of the weeks range and has pushed higher. The next target is the 1.3159 level and then 1.3184. The move higher in the dollar against the EURO on the better US data, has given way to “risk on”. Greece hope and stronger US help the flows. The pair is still mired in the narrow trading range for the week. Perhaps next week the pair finds more of a direction. In the meantime will be paying attention to the technicals for clues as to bias until the break occurs.

GBPUSD expectations for additional QE revised lower

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 09:17 AM PST

The expectations for additional QE by the BOE at their interest rate meeting next week, has been racheted down to 50 B additional from 75 B which has been more of the concensus. The better global tone is perhaps a contributing factor. Besides, it is easier to add rather than subtract down the road.

Swiss government spokesperson says Franc cap of at least 1.2000

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 08:37 AM PST

The EURCHF is above the 200 day MA a thte 1.2054 level. A close would be bullish from a technical perspective. The problem is the longs are likely overcrowding the shorts as the pair as inched lower and lower toward the 1.2000 floor. In an overcrowded trade, the buyers need to continue to show up. If they don’t those buyers could become disenchanted and sell. So barring intervention, the topside may be limited (reference USDJPY).

EURUSD looking like a squeeze higher? Will be watching the 1.3126 level

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 08:27 AM PST

Although the midpoint of the week at 1.31267 level has yet to be breached, the sellers don’t seem to be in control. A move above the 1.31267 level should encourage buying/shorts covering as market struggles with dollar strength or is this a signal for “risk on” EURUSD buying.

Gold sells off on relief from US data.

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 07:52 AM PST

AUDUSD moves to 6 month high

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 07:46 AM PST

The AUDUSD moved to the highest level since August 2nd 2011 on the back of the “Risk On” trade from the better than expected US Employment report . The new high overtook the September 2011 hight the 1.0762 level On the daily the next targets are at the 1.0810 and 1.0835 level which are topside trend line targets.

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-02-03T07:29:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

USDCAD dips below the 200 day MA
The EURUSD rebounds. No news seen
A look at the EURUSD, GPDUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY
ISM Non-Manufacturing Improves, Factory Orders Lower
EURUSD fall stalls. Correction will be eyed closely.
USDCHF tests topside trendline.
GBPUSD falls below 100 hour MA but finds support at trendlines.
EURUSD breaks below 100 hour MA, 50% wks range and 200 hour
USDJPY soars higher (well relatively) on better jobs.
The EURUSD moves higher initially but comes off as mkt thinks about it
US Nonfarm Payrolls Surge, Unemployment Rate Down to 8.3%
Great Employment Numbers
Key levels through NFP report
Overnight review and preview
NFP awaited. Markets coiling for a move

USDCAD dips below the 200 day MA

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 07:25 AM PST

Despite weaker than expected Canada Employment, the USDCAD is taking its clue from the “risk on” traders. The 0.9960 level is the 200 day MA and the price has dipped below this level after surging on the Canada employment report which came out at 7 AM (before the US report).

The EURUSD rebounds. No news seen

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 07:20 AM PST

Weeks midpoint is looking to be tested at the 1.31257 level. A move above will be a disappointment for the bears.

A look at the EURUSD, GPDUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 07:07 AM PST

This report is now viewable on the IPhone and IPad.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Improves, Factory Orders Lower

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 07:03 AM PST

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

Survey: 53.2, Actual: 56.8, Prior: 52.6

Factory Orders

Survey: 1.5%, Actual: 1.1%, Prior: 1.0%, Revised: 2.2%

EURUSD fall stalls. Correction will be eyed closely.

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 06:35 AM PST

The fall in the EURUSD has stalled and the correction will be eyed closely by traders. The 38.2% of the sharp move lower comes in at 1.3118. The low from the asian session comes in at 1.3114. The low at 1.3124 is another important level. Traders, looking for further downside momentum (dollar buying) would not want to see the pair move above this area. Staying below it, keeps the bears in charge intraday at least.

The weeks range of 201 pips in the EURUSD is still light. There exists a chance for an extension. The low came in at 1.3025. It seems a long way off but keep in mind if the momentum continues.

USDCHF tests topside trendline.

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 06:23 AM PST

The USDCHF moved above trendline resistance at the 0.9226 level but come off. This trendline is from the high on Jan 20 connecting to the high on Jan 25th. The price previously moved above 38.2% of the same move down at the 0.92139. Traders will be watching this level for bullish clues. If support holds against this level, the upside should have further potential with a move toward the 0.9244 (50%) being the next target. If the level is broken, traders will look for the underside of the lower trendline in the chart above (currently at the 0.9203 level) to hold support. This trendline was initial resistance on the first surge higher before breaking higher.

GBPUSD falls below 100 hour MA but finds support at trendlines.

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 06:06 AM PST

The lower trendline comes in at 1.5745 area and is from the lows back on Jan 13th connecting to the low on January 18th. The 100 hour MA come in at 1.5781 currently. The 1.5760 level is another key level off the daily chart. It is the 38.2% of the move down from the August high. This was broken this week. A move back below is not welcomed.

EURUSD breaks below 100 hour MA, 50% wks range and 200 hour

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 05:53 AM PST

The EURUSD has moved below the 100 hour MA and the weeks midpoint at 1.31257. The price has now moved below the 200 hour MA and looks toward the next target at the 1.3089 areal. 1.3076. 1.3051 and the low for the week at the 1.30257 are downside targets.

Traders will like to see corrections stay below the 1.31257 midpoint (and the 100 hour MA at the 1.3137) if the price breaks back above the 1.3137 level (100 hour MA) all bets off for the downside as the market stays unsure of the directional bias given the strong number.

USDJPY soars higher (well relatively) on better jobs.

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 05:44 AM PST

The USDJPY soared higher on the better jobs data. A move above the November low at 76.54 should open the door for further upside momentum. The 75.82 is the 200 hour MA. This will be another target level above.

The EURUSD moves higher initially but comes off as mkt thinks about it

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 05:35 AM PST

The initial move was to the upside for the pair, but the market is rethinking the initial risk on reaction in that pair. The number may be strong enough to warrant an buy the dollar vs the EURO assuming EU has continued problems and the US is recovering.

THe 100 hour MA at the 1.3138 level and the midpoint of the weeks range at the 1.31257 will be eyed for clues. Move below these levels and the bias could switch to the downside. Stay above and remains bullish. The 1.3184 level and then the 1.3211-15 level become targets above. The high for the week was at 1.3226. The range for the week is a narrow 201 pips. That range can be extended today so watch the key levels for clues.

Market is still battling it out with the buyers holding the line.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Surge, Unemployment Rate Down to 8.3%

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 05:32 AM PST

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: Survey: 140K Actual: 243K Prior: 200K Revision: 203K

Change in Private Payrolls: Survey: 160K Actual: 257K Prior: 212K Revised: 220K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: Survey: 13K Actual: 50K Prior: 23K Revised: 32K

Unemployment Rate: Survey: 8.5% Actual: 8.3% Prior: 8.5%

Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp: Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 0.2%

Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp: Survey: 1.9% Actual: 1.9% Prior: 2.1%

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees: Survey: 34.4 Actual: 34.5 Prior: 34.4

US Jobless rate drops to February of 2009

Great Employment Numbers

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 05:30 AM PST

Payroll up Unemployment rate down to 8.3%
Underemployment 15.1%

Key levels through NFP report

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 05:26 AM PST

Overnight review and preview

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 04:54 AM PST

Overnight the all the major currency pairs traded in very narrow trading ranges as the market awaits the US Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations is for
the NFP to show a rise of 140K vs 200K last month. The job creation ex government workers is expected to rise by 160K vs 212K last month (Private payroll). The Unemployment rate is
expected to remain at 8.5%. Last month the Underemployment Rate was at 15.2%. Mfging jobns are expected to add 13K jobs vs 23K last month. The direction of the market will be determined off the number. If the number is weak, you can espect a lower dollar on the back of the chance for QE3 becomes more real. If the number is strong, the reaction may not
be as predictable. The market may look at it as good for the dollar, but it may also view the gains as good for extending risk. As a result, it is important to watch the technical levels. In the EURUSD the range for the week is 201 pips. In 2011 there were only 2 weeks with a more narrow trading rang. The high for the week was in the 1st hour of trading at 1.3226. The low on Weds at 1.3025. The midpoint is 1.31257. This will be a bullish or bearish tipping point after the number is released – above 1.31257 bullish, below 1.31257 bearish. The GBPUSD has had a more normal week – trending to the upside. The pair moved outside the 2 1/2 month range this week (1.5795 was the highest px going back to 11/18). The low today was 1.5784. The USDJPY broke lower on Monday and bottomed at 76.01. The 76.39 is the midpoint of the wk. A move above this level is needed for any upside chance. A move below 76.00 has the Aug 11 low at 75.94 and then the post WWII low of 75.56 as targets. USDCHF has been above and below the 100 day MA every day this wk. The 100 day MA is at 0.9167 today. Price moves above it= bullish. If price stays below it = bearish (after the release).

NFP awaited. Markets coiling for a move

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 04:51 AM PST

Belajar Forex Gratis

2012-02-02T07:24:00.001-08:00

Belajar Forex Gratis

Pertanyaan Keuangan Instaforex

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 04:47 PM PST

Metode pengisian dan penarikkan apa saja yang tersedia di InstaForex?

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Berapa lama waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk mengisi akun trading?

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Berapa lama waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk menarik dana dari akun trading?

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Berapakah jumlah minimum penarikkan?

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-02-02T07:21:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

USDCHF tests intraday support
Bernanke see signs economy improving
anBernanke Sees Signs Economy is Improving and Fiscal Policy Risks
EURUSD trades between the Goal Posts. Looks for break
EU’s Rehn on the Wires
AUDUSD looks to break higher intraday
EURUSD trades between the “Goal Posts”
EURUSD falls on no Greece solution.
Jobless Claims Data Improves
Challenger Job Cuts Comes in Higher 38.9% vs 30.6% Prior
No Greece solution, lower EURUSD today. Dollar mixed.
The FXDD overnight review and preview
Irish Central Bank cuts 2011 GDP growth to 0.8% from 1.0%.
Merkel says China says that Europe must do its homeowrk first on the Eurozone crisis, then ready to work for a stable Euro.
Euro rises after China’s Premier Wen says China is considering greater involvement in the EFSF and ESM stabilization funds.

USDCHF tests intraday support

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 07:15 AM PST

The USDCHF has come off and moved below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart above. The next target to get through is the 200 bar MA (green line) . This corresponds with a trendline earlier which was broken on comments from Chinese PM Wen, but was quickly reversed (I will reestablish the old trendline as support) A break below this key intraday level should solicit stops. Staying above gives shorts a reason to buy with limited risk (sell on the break)

Bernanke see signs economy improving

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 07:04 AM PST

Recovery is frustrating
Vulnerable to shocks
Outlook uncertain
Credit remains tight
Jobs improved modestly
Housing remains depressed.
Inflation subdued
Current fiscal policies is not sustainable; would create big budget gap

His comments are a little less dovish perhaps. Driving down the middle of the road as he faces a split audience. Note that during his press conference after the FOMC, he was a bit more brave with his dovish views.

anBernanke Sees Signs Economy is Improving and Fiscal Policy Risks

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 07:01 AM PST

Large and increasing level of government debt runs risk of serious economic consequences
Long way before labor market can be said to be operating normally
Fed will continue to monitor situation in Europe closely, and take every available step to protect US financial system and economy
There are concerns that have been weighing on US business investment
Inflation has declined and Fed expects it to remain subdued
Signs economy has declined and Fed expects it to remain subdued

EURUSD trades between the Goal Posts. Looks for break

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 07:00 AM PST

EU’s Rehn on the Wires

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 06:50 AM PST

Says:

Euro governance to be determined this year
Closer economic union to complement monetary union
Recession to be ‘much nastier’ if crisis not resolved
EU going through a ‘mild recession’
EU undertaking reformation of Europe’
Portugal making ‘good progress’ on fiscal reforms
Greek PSI agreement by the end of the week
Greece must make ‘decisive progress’ on reforms

AUDUSD looks to break higher intraday

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 06:31 AM PST

EURUSD trades between the “Goal Posts”

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 06:03 AM PST

The EURUSD is trading between what I call the Goal Posts (between the 100 and 200 hour MA’s in the chart above). The pair moved higher in the late London morning on comments from China Premiere Wen who said China was exploring helping in the ESM/EFSF mechanisms. However, he later commented that he was not sure how. EU’s Juncker sent the EURUSD to the NY lows on comments that Greece PSI talks were ultra difficult. This sent the price down to test the 200 hour MA vut the price could not close below that level.

Now with the price higher and off the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above), the pair has found initial resistance against the midpoint of the weeks trading range at the 1.3125 level. A move above that level will target the 100 hour MA at the at 1.3143. A break above that level targets the topside trendline at the 1.3191 level currently.

Holding below the weeks midpoint (look for sellers against the level) should send the pair back down to test the 200 hour AM at the 1.3095 level currently. A break of it, will next look toward the 1.3076 level and then the lows for the week at 1.3041 (Tuesday’s low) and 1.3025 (from Wednesday).

The week is a non trending week. Bernanke speaks at 10 AM ET which could ignite some action. The Fed Chair has been dovish and will likely continue to express this sentiment in Washington today. Hints of QE3 have sent stocks higher and with it the EURUSD but in this market filled with news (and unemployment tomorrow) it is always best to follow the key technical levels and define risk against those levels.

EURUSD falls on no Greece solution.

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 05:33 AM PST

Jobless Claims Data Improves

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 05:31 AM PST

Jobless Claims: Survey: 371K Actual: 367K Prior: 377K Revised: 379K

Continuing Claims: Survey: 3535K Actual: 3437K Prior:3554K Revised: 3567K

EUR/USD moves higher on the news

Nonfarm Productivity: Survey: 0.8% Actual: 0.7% Prior: 2.3% Revised: 1.9%

Unit Labor Costs: Survey: 0.8% Actual: 1.2% Prior: -2.5% Revised: -2.1%

Challenger Job Cuts Comes in Higher 38.9% vs 30.6% Prior

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 05:20 AM PST

No Greece solution, lower EURUSD today. Dollar mixed.

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 05:01 AM PST

CLICK on picture for FULL SIZE PDF.

The FXDD overnight review and preview

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 04:45 AM PST

The dollar opens the NY session mixed but with little changes from yesterday's closes. EU PPI came in at -0.2% MoM and 4.3% YoY which was close to expectations. Spain registered jobless climbed by the most in 3 years (+177,470 jobs lost in the current mo.). The total unemployed is the most since January 2009 and was higher than the estimate of 127K. The UnE rate is 22.9%. What helped the EURUSD in London trade was a comment by Chinese Premiere Wen who said that China is considering greater involvement in EFSF/ESM. However, the spike higher was quickly reversed. The early NY decline was attributed to a comment from EU Juncker who said the Greek PSI talks are "ultra difficult". In the UK Construction PMI fell to 51.4 from 53.2 last mo(below exp of 52.5). Japan vehicle sales were up 40.7% YoY. The USDJPY and EURJPY reversed back down after the gains yesterday &the low of 76.56 is in trader's sites. The Swiss Trade Balance declined to 2.07B from 2.95B last mo.(est. 2.5B), however, the Swiss exports rebounded by 6.1 after declining by -4.8% last mo. Imports increased 7.6% after declining 8.2% last mo. Despite the gains, with the spending cuts in the EU &the high value of the CHF franc, the export market is not likely to experience a resurgence of growth. The EURCHF reached new lows since September 2010 yesterday. The low reached 1.2030. The 200 day MA currently comes in at 1.2057. A close above that level is needed to solicit more buying interest. In the US today, the Challenger Job Cuts rose by 38.9% YoY. Employers planned on cutting 53,486 jobs which was the highest number since Sep2011. Non Farm Productivity is expected to rise by 0.8% vs 2.3%. The Unit Labor cuts are also expected to rise by 0.8%. Intial Claims are to decline to 371K from 377K according to Est.

Irish Central Bank cuts 2011 GDP growth to 0.8% from 1.0%.

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 03:03 AM PST

Sees 2013 GDP increasing to 2.1%.
Cuts 2012 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.2%.

Merkel says China says that Europe must do its homeowrk first on the Eurozone crisis, then ready to work for a stable Euro.

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 02:41 AM PST

Euro rises after China’s Premier Wen says China is considering greater involvement in the EFSF and ESM stabilization funds.

Posted: 02 Feb 2012 02:35 AM PST

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-02-01T07:40:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

FOREX TRADERS COURSE Thursday at 4:00PM with Greg Michalowski
EURJPY finds some upside resistance against 38.2% retracement
Fitch’s Riley says unsure if Portugal needs another bailout
Construction Spending and ISM Prices Paid Move Higher, Manufacturing Lower
ISM Manufacturing due out at 10 AM. Last months components for comparison
State of California Treasury official says CA may borrow up to 1 billion
White House announces refinancing plan
ItaFitch’s Riley says Greece will default
ECB role in Greek bailout has been discussed this wk: Sources
Ford US sales up 7.4% vs 9.5% expectations.
GBPUSD consolidates, then surges to highest level since Nov 2011
EURUSD trends higher. Runs into trendline resistance
Feds Plosser did not back 2014 pledge on interest rates
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Data Alongside Construction Spending Due at 10AM
Better PMI data in China/Europe send the dollar lower

FOREX TRADERS COURSE Thursday at 4:00PM with Greg Michalowski

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 07:38 AM PST

Traders Course Lesson 14 at 4:00PM TODAY with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell. The topic is Using Trend lines effectively in your Forex Trading: Part 2
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EURJPY finds some upside resistance against 38.2% retracement

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 07:30 AM PST

Like a lot of pair, the EURJPY has reversed some of the declines from yesterday. The price has moved above channel resistance and moved to the 38.2% of the move down from the January 26th high to the low today (at 100.363 see chart above). The price moved above that level but has not been able to close above this level today. ON a move above be aware that the 100 and 200 hour MA are converged at the 100.63 level. I would expect good resistance at the level.

On the downside the 99.95 level is the underside of the trendline. Look for support on dips toward that area.

Fitch’s Riley says unsure if Portugal needs another bailout

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 07:12 AM PST

EURUSD pops on the headline. The Portuguese debt has been hit recently on the back of worries about their fiscal health

Construction Spending and ISM Prices Paid Move Higher, Manufacturing Lower

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 07:01 AM PST

ISM Manufacturing: Survey: 54.5 Actual: 54.1 Prior: 53.9

Jan vs Dec Breakdown
Production: 55.7 vs 58.9
New Orders: 57.6 vs 54.8
Employment: 54.3 vs 54.8
Supplier Deliveries:
Inventories: 49.5 vs45.5
Prices: 55.5 vs 47.5
Order Backlogs: 52.5 vs 48.0

ISM Prices Paid: Survey: 50.0 Actual: 55.5 Prior: 47.5

Construction Spending: Survey: 0.5% Actual: 1.5% Prior: 1.2% Revised: 0.4%

ISM Manufacturing due out at 10 AM. Last months components for comparison

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 06:57 AM PST

Prices paid       47.5
Production      59.9
New orders      57.6
Backlog of orders     48.0
Supplier deliveries   49.9
Inventories     47.1
Customer inventories 42.5
Employment   55.1
New export orders  53.0
Imports           54.0

State of California Treasury official says CA may borrow up to 1 billion

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 06:53 AM PST

…to avert a cash shortfall. Earlier today, the LA Times was reported as saying that CA faced a cash shortfall of up to 3.3 billion by March

White House announces refinancing plan

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 06:45 AM PST

Would be open to borrowers whose loans are current for the last 6 months, miss no more than 1 payment, and programme would only be open to single family owner occupied properties

ItaFitch’s Riley says Greece will default

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 06:43 AM PST

But does not see Greece leaving the EU
Italy is the key for success or failure of the EURO
Italy should not focus on fiscal austerity now. Growth is more important
Does not expect to resolve France’s negative outlook before 2013

ECB role in Greek bailout has been discussed this wk: Sources

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 06:41 AM PST

Ford US sales up 7.4% vs 9.5% expectations.

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 06:33 AM PST

US data coming out a bit weaker today so far. Construction spending (est +0.5%) and ISM (54.5 est) due 10 AM

GBPUSD consolidates, then surges to highest level since Nov 2011

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 06:22 AM PST

The GBPUSD has been contained on the topside over the last 2 to 2 1/2 months of trading. Yesterday a play was made to extend higher but failed. Today, the move has pushed above the 1.5778 level after consolidating in a narrow range for much of the trading day (see chart above). Better UK PMI helped push the pair higher.

The price has since moved to a high of 1.5866. The high print going back to November 18th came in at 1.5886. The 1.5886 will be the next target above. Other upside targets include the 1.5924 (50 % of the move down from August 2010 high) and the 200 day MA at the 1.5953 level (see daily chart below).

On the downside, intraday traders will take clues from the 38.2 of the last leg higher today which comes in at the 1.5819 level (see above). Below that the high from yesterday at 1.5795 should hold support if the break is not a failed one.

EURUSD trends higher. Runs into trendline resistance

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 05:55 AM PST

The EURUSD has trended higher today after trending lower for most of yesterday. The move higher today has two legs. The last leg higher has corrected to the 38.2% after testing the topside channel trendline. The high also corresponded with the topside trendline connecting the highs over the last three trading days (see hourly chart below). Sellers/profit takers were more than happy to sell against this level with risk so clearly defined and limited. A move below the 38.2% at the 1.3168 area will likely lead to a test of the lower channel trendline at the 1.3156 level currently (see chart above). The earlier high for the day at 1.3151 will also be a target to breach on the downside if the bears are going to wrestle some more control from the bulls.

Feds Plosser did not back 2014 pledge on interest rates

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 05:48 AM PST

Policy should not hinge on a calendar date
Inflation to be monitored carefully due to very accomodative policy

I personally have to agree with Plosser. Setting a date every month is simply painting yourself in a corner. There is a boat load of stimulus and if the economy does pick up, inflation could jump rather quickly. The Fed will likely be late to the game as they worry about their credibility from their date.

US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Data Alongside Construction Spending Due at 10AM

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 05:36 AM PST

Better PMI data in China/Europe send the dollar lower

Posted: 01 Feb 2012 05:18 AM PST

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2012-02-01T07:06:00.000-08:00

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-01-31T07:42:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Traders Course Lesson 13 4:00PM TODAY with Greg Michalowski
ISM for December was revised lower to 53.1 from 53.9.
EURUSD tests (and falls below) 100 hour MA
EURJPY looks to continue rotation back lower after failed break in London
US Consumer Confidence 61.0 Moving Lower Than December of 64.5
USDJPY pressure remains
Chicago Purchasing Manager 60.2 vs Survey of 63.0 and Prior of 62.2
The EURUSD rotates back down toward close from yesterday
France finance minister sees Greek debt agreement by end of the week
CaseShiller Data All Weaker
USDCAD moves higher after weaker GDP data
Canada GDP Falls Again
Employment Cost Index comes out as predicted at 0.4% vs. 0.3% prior (QoQ)
Dollar lower. Overnight Recap.
Dollar declines through London session. Risk pairs lead way.

Traders Course Lesson 13 4:00PM TODAY with Greg Michalowski

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 07:26 AM PST

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ISM for December was revised lower to 53.1 from 53.9.

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 07:12 AM PST

The Non Mfg Index was revised to 53 from 53.6.

The January ISM data for Manufacturing is due out on Thursday with an estimate of 54.6. The Non Manufacturing index is due on Friday with estimate of 53.2.

EURUSD tests (and falls below) 100 hour MA

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 07:04 AM PST

A break below the 100 hour MA and the 61.8% retracement next targets the 1.3109, 1.3089 and the low for the week at 1.3075. US equities have turned around and are now down on the day

EURJPY looks to continue rotation back lower after failed break in London

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 07:01 AM PST

The EURJPY has resumed a downward bias after failing on a break above both the 200 hour MA (green line) and channel trendline during the London session. The price is back in the downward channel and is looking to break below the 38.2% retracement level. The low from yesterday came in at 100.047. A move below that level will next target the 50% of the move up from the January 16th low to the high reached on January 25th. That level comes in at 99.606 .

US Consumer Confidence 61.0 Moving Lower Than December of 64.5

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 07:00 AM PST

USD/JPY Trading near session lows.

USDJPY pressure remains

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 06:48 AM PST

After yesterdays fall below floor support (see daily chart above), the USDJPYS has remained pressured to the downside (albeit in a narrow non trending trading range). The price nevertheless has found support against trendline support at the 76.16 level. A break of this level will be needed to push the pair lower, with 76.10, 75.94 and the low at 75.56 the target downside levels.

Chicago Purchasing Manager 60.2 vs Survey of 63.0 and Prior of 62.2

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 06:47 AM PST

Jan 2012 vs Dec 2011
Employment 54.7 vs vs 59.2 – Lowest since August
Prices Paid 62.4 vs 63.8
Production: 63.8 vs 64.9
New Orders: 63.6 vs 67.1
Order Backlogs: 48.3 vs 57.3
Inventories: 51.6 vs 52.0
Supplier Deliveries: 61.5 vs 56.6

The EURUSD rotates back down toward close from yesterday

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 06:45 AM PST

France finance minister sees Greek debt agreement by end of the week

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 06:35 AM PST

Private sector will be voluntary

Old news.

CaseShiller Data All Weaker

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 06:01 AM PST

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: Actual: 138.49 Prior: 140.30 Revised: 140.30

S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA: Survey: -0.50% Actual: -0.70% Prior: -0.62% Revised: -0.67%

S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY): Survey: -3.30% Actual: -3.67% Prior: - 3.40% Revised: – 3.42%

USDCAD moves higher after weaker GDP data

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 05:33 AM PST

The USDCAD was down testing the 200 day MA at the 0.9953 level. However, weaker than expected GDP data has pushed the pair off the key level. The GDP came in at -0.1% vs expectations of+0.2% . The YoY came in at 2.0% vs 2.3% expected (and 2.7% last). On the hourly chart below the channel trendline comes in at 0.9993 currently. A break above this level is needed to prove that the bulls have some support. The trend has been down. Buyers have to take charge.

Canada GDP Falls Again

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 05:32 AM PST

Gross Domestic Product (MoM): Survey: 0.2% Actual: -0.1% Prior: 0.0

Gross Domestic Product (YoY): Survey: 2.3% Actual: 2.0% Prior: 2.7% Revised:

Industrial Production Price Index MoM: Survey: -0.1% Actual: -0.7% Prior: 0.2% Revised: 0.3%

Raw Materials Price Index: Survey: 0.0% Actual: -2.4% Prior: 3.8%

Raw Materials December vs. November 2011 Statistics
Ex-Mineral Fuels: 147.3 vs 149.8
Mineral Fuels: 209.9 vs 216.5
Vegtable Products: 142.3 vs 145.7
Animals: 124.5 vs 125.5
Wood: 90.4 vs  90.5
Ferrous Materials:   156.7 vs 157.5
Non-Ferrous Metals:   243.8 vs 252.0
Non-Metallic Minerals: 165.4 vs 164.5

Employment Cost Index comes out as predicted at 0.4% vs. 0.3% prior (QoQ)

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 05:30 AM PST

Dollar lower. Overnight Recap.

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 05:28 AM PST

The dollar is opening the NY session weaker. The decline is on the hopes that Greece is close to reaching an agreement with private sector creditors on a bond swap. EU officials also agreed yesterday on the framework for the 500 billion rescue fund set for July. The market is also awaiting the 2nd round of 3 year loans from the ECB in February. A report in the FT said the demand may be 2 to 3x the previous amount which is positive for the pair. In Germany retail sales fell by 1.4% in the current month. This was much lower than expectations (+0.8%), but the change in unemployment showed strength with 34 thousand decline (exp -10K). The Unemployment Rate fell to 6.7% from 6.8%. In France Consumer Spending also fell by a larger than expected -0.7% v +0.2% exp. Italy’s UnE Rt rose to 8.9% vs 8.7%. The mkt seems to be focusing on the good and not the bad today. There was also increased interest in adding risk in the overnight session. Global stock markets all have green up arrows. Gold and Oil are also up. The USDCAD moved to lowest levels since October 31st and is approaching the 200 day MA at 0.9951 today. The NZDUSD continued its march higher, reaching the highest level since September 2011 and is testing the 61.8% of the move down from the August 2011 high. Building Permits were less than expected but it did not stop the pair from moving higher. The AUDUSD also made a move higher, but has not been able to move above the high from last wk (at 1.0685).

On tap today includes the US Employment Cost index (+0.4%) for the 4Q, Case Schilling Home Price Index for the top 20 US cities (-3.3% YoY v -3.4%),the Chicago PMI( 63 vs 52.2) and Consumer Confidence (68 v 64.5, highest since Feb 2011).In Canada Industrial Product Px and Raw Material Px are due (-0.1% and 0.0% exp) along with the GDP data for the month of November (0.2% vs 0.0% last on MoM and 2.3% vs 2.7% last).

Dollar declines through London session. Risk pairs lead way.

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 05:08 AM PST

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2012-01-30T07:29:00.001-08:00

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-01-30T07:14:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

GBPUSD tests key support at the 1.5657 level. Trendline, 100 hr MA and 38.2% retracement
USDCHF tests underside of trendline on hourly. Fails to extend on break of 100 day MA on Friday
EURUSD tests 100 hour MA at 1.3090
EURUSD moves lower. GBPUSD finds its support target.
US Personal Income Rises, While Spending Falls
EURUSD falls. Dollar strenghtens. EU leaders to meet today. Greece may need 15 bln more (145 B total)
US Personal Income & Spending Data Due at 8:30AM
German Finance Ministry spokesman says the focus remains on private sector contribution to Greek haircut.
Dollar continues to gain
EUR/USD moves below 61.8%
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan) -20.7 vs -20.6 expected.
Eurozone Business Climate (Jan) -0.21 vs -0.25 expected.
EU to reprogram unspent structural funds; no specified figures. It will also consider higher lending ceiling for EU investment bank.
Irish minister says if voters rejected fiscal treaty it would be gard to remain in the Euro.
Euro lower

GBPUSD tests key support at the 1.5657 level. Trendline, 100 hr MA and 38.2% retracement

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 06:23 AM PST

USDCHF tests underside of trendline on hourly. Fails to extend on break of 100 day MA on Friday

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 05:48 AM PST

The USDCHF fell below the 100 day MA at the 0.9151 level on Friday. This should have led to a momentum move lower, but when that did not materialize today,and the price found support against trendline support on the hourly chart, the price rebounded back higher.

The price is testing the underside of the broken trendline at the 0.9198 level. A move above the level will next target the 38.2% of the move down from last weeks high and the 100 hour MA at the 0.92159-0.9220 levels.

EURUSD tests 100 hour MA at 1.3090

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 05:44 AM PST

The EURUSD fell below the 1.3100 level and tested the 100 hour MA at the 1.3090 level (low came in at 1.3088). A move below the level has additional support at the 1.3078 where the low from Friday and the 38.2% of the move up from January 25th low comes in.

EURUSD moves lower. GBPUSD finds its support target.

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 05:33 AM PST

US Personal Income Rises, While Spending Falls

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 05:30 AM PST

Personal Income: Survey: 0.4% Actual: 0.5% Prior: 0.1%

Personal Spending: Survey: 0.1% Actual: 0.0% Prior: 0.1%

PCE Deflator: Survey: 2.3% Actual: 2.4% Prior: 2.5%

PCE Core(MoM): Survey: 0.1% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 0.1%

PCE Core(YoY): Survey: 1.7% Actual: 1.8% Prior: 1.7%

EURUSD falls. Dollar strenghtens. EU leaders to meet today. Greece may need 15 bln more (145 B total)

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 04:59 AM PST

US Personal Income & Spending Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 04:32 AM PST

German Finance Ministry spokesman says the focus remains on private sector contribution to Greek haircut.

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 02:57 AM PST

Dollar continues to gain

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 02:28 AM PST

The USD is trading on session highs against all of the majors as the market prefers to avoid risk. In the case of the USD vs the CHF, the next stop appears to be .92007.

EUR/USD moves below 61.8%

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 02:10 AM PST

After testing support at this level earlier, the pair has secured consecutive closes below this line; with European equities in the red we may see more risk-off sentiment in the market.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan) -20.7 vs -20.6 expected.

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 02:02 AM PST

Eurozone Business Climate (Jan) -0.21 vs -0.25 expected.

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 02:01 AM PST

EU to reprogram unspent structural funds; no specified figures. It will also consider higher lending ceiling for EU investment bank.

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 01:31 AM PST

Irish minister says if voters rejected fiscal treaty it would be gard to remain in the Euro.

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 12:59 AM PST

Euro lower

Posted: 30 Jan 2012 12:48 AM PST

The Euro has come off in recent trading as investors await a debt swap deal between Greece and it’s private creditors; the deal would cut the long term value of bonds help by creditors to a touch over 70%. Additionally, German Eco. Minster Roesler is said to want Greece to surrender control of its budget policy if it could not follow through with necessary reforms.

On the 15 minute, the EUR/USD found support at the 61.8% fibo line on the move from Friday’s low to today’s high; currently testing the 100 hour moving average.

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-01-28T07:11:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

The Commitment of Traders show an increase in net EURO short position.
Lagarde says this time bailout to Greece will require deliverable fiscal adjustments
EURUSD moves toward 38.2% retracement. Topside trendline also getting closer
Fitch cuts Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Belgium, Slovenia, affirms Ireland
Spain, Belgium, Italy, Slovenia, Cyprus All Cut by Fitch
Week ahead in Trading webinar this Monday at 9:30AM
USDCHF moves below 100 day MA
EURUSD makes new highs…
Greek debt deal in principle by Sunday evening.
EURUSD breaks trendline . Weeks high the next target
UK Miles says presumptuos to think QE in Feb is a done deal
GBPUSD tumbles. Talk of a UK clearer selling

The Commitment of Traders show an increase in net EURO short position.

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 12:31 PM PST

In for another squeeze higher next week? The change WoW was +10%.

Lagarde says this time bailout to Greece will require deliverable fiscal adjustments

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 11:40 AM PST

She adds the Greek program requires significant PSI.

EURUSD moves toward 38.2% retracement. Topside trendline also getting closer

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 10:47 AM PST

The EURUSD is approaching some upside targets for the pair. The first is the underside of the trendline on the hourly chart above. That level comes in at the 1.3222 level currently. The next would be the 38.2% of the move down from the October 27th high. That level comes in at the 1.32429 level. Finally, the top channel trendline on the daily at the 1.3252 is also approaching.

With the days range for the EURUSD above the average range, I would expect that traders might look to take some profit against these levels before the weekend.

Fitch cuts Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Belgium, Slovenia, affirms Ireland

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 10:06 AM PST

Italy cut to A- from A+ Outlook Negative
Belgium cut to AA from AA + Outlook Negative
Cyprus cut to BB- from BBB Outlook Negative
Spain cut to A from AA- Outlook negative
Slovenia cut to A from AA- Outlook Negative
Ireland was affirms rating at BBB+ Outlook Negative

Spain, Belgium, Italy, Slovenia, Cyprus All Cut by Fitch

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 10:04 AM PST

Week ahead in Trading webinar this Monday at 9:30AM

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 10:01 AM PST

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USDCHF moves below 100 day MA

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 09:58 AM PST

The USDCHF has moved to new lows and also below the 100 day MA at the 0.91475 level. This is the first time the price has dipped below this level since the intervention on September 5th.

EURUSD makes new highs…

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 09:26 AM PST

The Friday afternoon squeeze is on as hopes for Greek solution and weaker GDP lead to the dollars decline. In Greece the comment from a spokesperson is there is one step left for an agreement. At the same time the word is a 2nd bailout may be coming from the EU but further funding from the EU is coming to an end. Maybe the haircut will get them over the hump and they can fund addtional payments through positive cash flow and austerity measures, but if they can not, I do not think tapping the debt market will be an option. The situation is still vague but the market is getting used to it and it may just be a big stall to allow banks more time to shore up balance sheets via the ECB version of QE.

Meanwhile, in the US, the market is realizing that the GDP was not all that great and with a dovish Bernanke/Fed behind the wheel promoting a lower dollar and the potential for more QE, maybe that is the way to go. The only thing missing today is a roaring stock market in the US.

Greek debt deal in principle by Sunday evening.

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 08:27 AM PST

Greek official adds, that the EU will not fill any funding shortfall after 2nd bailout, but there are other ways.

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-01-27T07:32:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

University of Michigan Confidence Rises to 75.0 from Prior and Survey of 74.0
Volatility takes hold. Dollar up and down in NY trading
AUDUSD reverses and now down on the day
USDCAD shoots higher
EURSD consolidating. Low at 1.3076 targeted
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.27.2012
GDP not up to snuff
US GDP Weaker Than Expectations
US 4 Q GDP awaited
Dollar decline continues today. Greece optimism. Better Italian bill auction cited.
US GDP, Personal Consumption, Core PCE Data Due at 8:30
EU’s Rehn expects Greece deal “if not today, then over weekend”
Eurozone M3 Money Supply up 1.6% vs 2.2% expected for year
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer -0.17 vs -0.06 expected
German Import Prices as expected for December at 0.3%

University of Michigan Confidence Rises to 75.0 from Prior and Survey of 74.0

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 06:55 AM PST

75.0 highlest level since February 2011

Jan 12 vs. Dec 11
Consumer Confidence: 74.0 vs 69.9
Economic Conditions: 82.6 vs 79.6
Economic Outlook: 68.4 vs 63.6

Volatility takes hold. Dollar up and down in NY trading

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 06:49 AM PST

AUDUSD reverses and now down on the day

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 06:20 AM PST

The AUDUSD reversed course with a reversal of the stock market in pre opening trading. The price fell below the close from yesterday at the 1.0630 level but has found support against the 38.2% of the weeks trading range. Traders will likely use these two areas as the extremes for trading this morning. The burden is still on the sellers to push the price lower.

ON the topside, traders will also be watching the 1.06227 level which is the 38.2% of the move down. Holding this level on the correction higher might be a sign that traders are willing to sell and lighten up positions into the weekend. A move above could be a sign, the flush lower was just a quick. low liquidity move.

USDCAD shoots higher

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:56 AM PST

The Dec job gain was revised up to 21,700 from 17,500 but the USDCAD has moved sharply higher over the last 20 or so minutes of trading. The surge higher has nearly fully reversed the decline today and seems to have surprised a short market. The high for the day at 1.0039 is the next target to get through. On the downside look for the 38.2% of the move higher to hold support at the 1.0018 level. IF the move higher did catch shorts, and is supported by good buying, this level should find willing buyers. Aggresive buyers would look to hold support closer at the 1.0024 area. Is it real or is it just a Friday move on low volume?

EURSD consolidating. Low at 1.3076 targeted

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:49 AM PST

The EURUSD has moved below the close from yesterday at the 1.3108. The price is also now below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3120 level currently. The low for the day at the 1.3076 level is the next target for the pair.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.27.2012

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:36 AM PST

Good Morning:

With a looming 14 billion euro payment due in March-the Greek government is in continuous talks with their private creditors to restructure their debt. This has been the centerpiece of the currency markets for the past week. Creditors are insisting on ECB participation in the Greek debt mess.
In other news from the Euro Zone:
Portuguese bond yields reached new highs-as market participants are in the mindset that Portugal may need a second bailout to work out their debt mess.
Spain’s unemployment rate rose to over 22%-as the loss of construction jobs continues to hamper any employment recovery.

US Q4 GDP rises 2.8%.

Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is lower-as are US Futures.

Oil is higher-still below $100/bar. Gold is lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

I will be out of the office next week-as I am having knee surgery. I will hobble back on Feb 6.

GDP not up to snuff

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:36 AM PST

Headline 2.8%
Consumption 2% vs 2.4% expected (Contributed 1.45%
Investment rose 20% (Contributed 2.35%)
Government -4.6% (Subtracted -0.93%)

Exports rose 4.7% (Net Exports subtracted -0.11%)
Imports rose by 4.4%

Inventories (which are part of Investment) added 56B. This contributed 1.94% of the 2.35% gain in investments.

Real Final Sales rose by 0.4% vs +2.6% last quarter.
Unannualized, GDP rose by 0.7% QoQ vs 0.5%. This was the highest reading since 2Q of 2010

US GDP Weaker Than Expectations

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:31 AM PST

(Annualized): Survey: 3.0% Actual: 2.8% Prior: 1.8%

Personal Consumption: Survey: 2.4% Actual: 2.0% Prior: 1.7%

GDP Price Index: Survey: 1.9% Actual: .4% Prior: 2.6%

Core PCE QoQ: Survey: 0.9% Actual: 1.1% Prior: 2.1%

US 4 Q GDP awaited

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:24 AM PST

The US GDP is awaited with expectation for 3% QoQ (annualized) with Personal Consumption expected at 2.4%. The 3% change would be the highest since June 2010. It is estimated that un employment declines when GDP is above the 2.5% region in the US.

Note US reports GDP on a annualized basis. So the change on a QoQ basis is extrapolated forward for the year.

Dollar decline continues today. Greece optimism. Better Italian bill auction cited.

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 04:54 AM PST

US GDP, Personal Consumption, Core PCE Data Due at 8:30

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 04:15 AM PST

EU’s Rehn expects Greece deal “if not today, then over weekend”

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 02:08 AM PST

Eur/Usd approaching 1.3150 after news.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply up 1.6% vs 2.2% expected for year

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 01:03 AM PST

Private loans up 1.0% vs 2.1% for year.

Eur/Usd has dipped below 1.31 to trade at 1.3092.

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer -0.17 vs -0.06 expected

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 12:07 AM PST

Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf unaffected by news, trading at .9216 and 1.2063 respectively.

German Import Prices as expected for December at 0.3%

Posted: 26 Jan 2012 11:02 PM PST

Eur/Usd trades at 1.3110.

Belajar Forex Gratis

2012-01-27T07:22:00.001-08:00

Belajar Forex Gratis

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-01-26T07:30:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EURUSD makes new highs, but comes off. 1.3192-96 looms above
Durable Goods Orders Improve, Jobless Claims Rise Slightly
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.26.2012
JP Morgan’s Dimon says unraveling the Euro is a terrible thing
UK CBI Realized Sales weaker than expected -22 vs -2
EU’s Reding says Euro is strongest currency in the world
Schaeuble doesn’t expect bank rescue fund to be used
German GFK Consumer Climate
1-26 Economic Calendar
USD/SGD breaks support @ 1.26528
USDSGD Approaching 200day
AUDJPY Hits Trendline
South Korean GDP
Japanese CSPI (y/y) 0.1%; better than expected.
Thursday Forex Traders Course Lesson 13 w/ Greg Michalowski

EURUSD makes new highs, but comes off. 1.3192-96 looms above

Posted: 26 Jan 2012 07:14 AM PST

The EURUSD has extended to new highs as the rally off the FOMC easy policy continues to drive the market. However, the push above the days high was quickly rejected (high reached 1.3183. Good resistance at the 1.3192-96 level may have been a contributor to the offers. At the level, channel trendline resistance from the hourly chart and the daily chart gives the longs a reason to take profit.

With the low to high range below the norm of 133 pips (94 pips so far) there is a chance for further gains. However, the above average range from yesterday of 226 pips is a reason for a breather today. As a result, look for sellers on moves toward the upside resistance (with cautious stops above).

On the downside, a move toward the 1.3147 is the first target followed by the 100 bar MA in the 5 minute chart below.

Durable Goods Orders Improve, Jobless Claims Rise Slightly

Posted: 26 Jan 2012 05:40 AM PST

Durable Goods Orders: Survey: 2.0% Actual: 3.0% Prior: 3.8% Revised: 4.3%

Durables Ex Transportation: Survey: 0.9% Actual: 2.1% Prior: 0.3% Revised: 0.5%

Jobless Claims: Survey: 370K Actual: 377K Prior: 352K Revised: 356K

Continuing Claims: Survey: 3500K Actual: 3554K Revised: 3466K

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.26.2012

Posted: 26 Jan 2012 05:15 AM PST

Good Morning:

With the ongoing sage between the Greek government and private investors continuing-there have been reports of the private sector accepting a interest rate of less than 4%. This is a major barrier that will now allow Grrece to seriously revamp their debt. Greece has a 14 billion euro payment due in March-and without the help of the IMF or ECB-they will not be able to meet this deadline.
This news pushed the EUR/USD pair into the mid 1.31 handle (1.3173).
Italy sold 4.5 billion euro worth of 3 year notes-with the lowest yield since last August. The yield was 3.763% versus 4.853 on the last 3 year note auction.

Yesterday’s press conference by Fed Chairman Bernanke brought the possibility of a third round of QE to the markets if unemoloyment remains high-so I guess we will see more QE by the 3rd quarter of this year.
He also talked about keeping interest rates low through 2014.

Gold, Silver and Oil are all higher-as are equities and futures.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

JP Morgan’s Dimon says unraveling the Euro is a terrible thing

Posted: 26 Jan 2012 03:14 AM PST

* Greek default won’t take down the western world; no direct effect to U.S. banks

* Europe situation not comparable to Lehman Bros.

UK CBI Realized Sales weaker than expected -22 vs -2

Posted: 26 Jan 2012 03:02 AM PST

Gbp/Usd continues to trade either side of 1.5700.

EU’s Reding says Euro is strongest currency in the world

Posted: 26 Jan 2012 01:19 AM PST

Eur/usd trades at 1.3115.

Schaeuble doesn’t expect bank rescue fund to be used

Posted: 26 Jan 2012 01:07 AM PST

Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3115.

German GFK Consumer Climate

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 11:25 PM PST

German GFK Consumer Climate came in at 5.9, stronger than the 5.6 expected and prior reading of 5.7.

Eur/Usd initially traded higher, to 1.3130 on news and has since retreated to pre number level of 1.3115.

1-26 Economic Calendar

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 08:54 PM PST

USD/SGD breaks support @ 1.26528

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:19 PM PST

All week we have been noting support for the pair at 1.26528, but following Bernanke’s testimony towards the end of New York trading the USD took a hit causing the USD/SGD to break support at this level after finding resistance at the 100 hour moving average.

From a daily perspective, the 1.2572 level currently being trading has shown the pair support towards the end of the summer. The next bearish target is the 200 day moving average coming in at 1.2532

USDSGD Approaching 200day

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:14 PM PST

The USDSGD pair has broken down the last few weeks and is approaching the 200day moving average where perhaps the pair and the USD can find some support against the risk out there (also at the 76.4%.)

AUDJPY Hits Trendline

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:10 PM PST

The AUDJPY play we have been looking at is at trendline resistance, a break higher could create a long-term trading opportunity.

South Korean GDP

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:01 PM PST

South Korean 4th quarter GDP came in slightly softer than expected, however the KRW received a bid against the USD, moving the USDKRW pair from 1129 to 1122.

GDP (QoQ) – Survey:0.5% Actual:0.4% Prior:0.8%
GDP (YoY) – Survey:3.5% Actual:3.4% Prior:3.5%

Japanese CSPI (y/y) 0.1%; better than expected.

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 03:58 PM PST

Thursday Forex Traders Course Lesson 13 w/ Greg Michalowski

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:41 PM PST

Forex Traders Course Lesson 13 Part 2 with Greg Michalowski, Thursday 4:00PM (New York time) - Join us for Part 2 of using the technical tools available for Forex trading. Register now

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-01-25T07:40:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

IMF Comments to the G-20
House Price Index Rises to 1.0%, Pending Home Sales Fall Almost 10%
EURUSD eyes resistance at 100 hour MA
USDJPY holds above corrective support (77.92-99) area. Back in channel
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.25.2012
US House Price Index & Pending Home Sales Data Due at 10AM
Dollar higher. Test intraday levels however. Bernanke awaited
Angela Merkel casts doubt on Greece
Dollar advances today. USDJPY continues surge. EURUSD falls below trendline. Bernanke and Fed awaited
US Mortgage Applications Fall to -5.0% Frior Prior of 23.1%
ECB said to be opposed to taking losses on it’s Greek debt holdings
UK GDP fell 0.2% in Q4, 0.1% decline expected
German Jan. IFO Business Confidence Index rises to 108.3 from prior 107.2
1-25 Economic Calendar
Possible USD/HKD resistance around 7.7608

IMF Comments to the G-20

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:04 AM PST

G20 countries can help EU expand size of bailout, and advanced countries’ monetary policy should remain accomodative
ECB should expand the balance sheet for banks and debt crisis
CNY is appreciating faster than previously, and China needs to continue to allow the CNY to appreciate
G20 markets assign low likelihood of Iran-related oil supply disruption, and Iran oil export disruption would push prices up USD 23-30 per BBL.

House Price Index Rises to 1.0%, Pending Home Sales Fall Almost 10%

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:01 AM PST

House Price Index(MoM): Survey: 0.0% Actual: 1.0% Prior: -0.2%

Pending Home Sales (MoM): Survey: -1.0% Actual: -3.5% Prior: 7.3%

Dec vs. Nov 2011
Seasonally Adjusted(MoM%)
U.S: -3.5% vs 7.3%
Northeast: -3.1% vs 8.1%
Midwest: 4.4% vs 3.3%
South: -2.6% vs 4.3%
West: -11.0% vs 14.9%

Level Change
U.S: -3.5 vs 6.8
Northeast: -2.4 vs 5.8
Midwest: 3.7 vs 2.9
South: -2.7 vs 4.3
West: -13.3 vs 15.7

Pending Home Sales (YoY): Actual: 4.4% Prior: 6.9%

EURUSD eyes resistance at 100 hour MA

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 06:09 AM PST

The EURUSD has resistance at the 1.2968 level (100 hour MA in the chart above – blue line). Move above and some of the bearishness of the day, starts to fade. Key level this morning.

USDJPY holds above corrective support (77.92-99) area. Back in channel

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:57 AM PST

The USDJPY corrected off the high in early NY trading but held above the days 38.2% -50% retracement area. In a currency pair like the USDJPY, if the price does not rally, it sells off. So far the price advances are holding.

The key resistance above today is against the high from November at the 78.28 level and then then 200 day MA at 78.33. Moving above these levels should solicit stop buying and additional upward momentum.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.25.2012

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:35 AM PST

Good Morning:

Another choppy night of trading as Euro and GBP led the parade.
With better than expected German IFO data-the EUR/USD pair rose to the mid 1.30 range before falling back into the mid 1.29 range.
GBP did worse-as lower than expected Q4 GDP surprised the markets. With manufacturers cutting production, and the service sector stagnant-is the UK looking at a double-dip recession? The BOE will be assessing it’s QE program to see if additional stimulus will not only be needed-but will it do anything in reality-only time will tell.
Greece is still negotiating with private bond holders to work out new interest rates for a bond swap. The prospects are not looking rosy.

Apple Inc blew out Q4 earnings-expected earnings $10.16/share-real earnings $13.87/share. Apple is now the largest company in the world. They have jumped over Exxon/Mobil to take the #1 spot.

Last night President Obama gave his “State of the Union” speech. He called for higher taxes on the rich, and more government spending (I have no idea where this money will come from) for job creation. It was a very political and partisan speech-pitting Democrats and Republicans against each other. In my opinion-the fighting between parties has added to the problems in Washington.

This afternoon we have the statement from the FOMC-and a news conference By Chairman Bernanke.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US House Price Index & Pending Home Sales Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:32 AM PST

Dollar higher. Test intraday levels however. Bernanke awaited

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:22 AM PST

Angela Merkel casts doubt on Greece

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:58 AM PST

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/25/angela-merkel-greece-financial-meltdown

In an article in the UK’s The Guardian, Germany’s Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from a financial meltdown.

Dollar advances today. USDJPY continues surge. EURUSD falls below trendline. Bernanke and Fed awaited

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:09 AM PST

US Mortgage Applications Fall to -5.0% Frior Prior of 23.1%

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:00 AM PST

ECB said to be opposed to taking losses on it’s Greek debt holdings

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 02:51 AM PST

The ECB has been buying up Greek debt as a way to provide liquidity to the banks and save the EU for collapse. There was a story in the press over the last 24 hours saying the ECB should take the hit and take a haircut on their bond holding too (along with the Private Sector bond holders). This comment says “no”. They feel they have already been part of the solution to Greece through their purchases. To now take a haircut would be a bad precedent to make to the market and to EU members.

UK GDP fell 0.2% in Q4, 0.1% decline expected

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:34 AM PST

BoE bond-purchase vote 9-0, interest rate vote 9-0 to keep at 275 bln and 0.5% respectively.

Some MPC memberssaid further asset purchases likely.

Gbp/Usd a touch firmer, presently trading at 1.5655.

German Jan. IFO Business Confidence Index rises to 108.3 from prior 107.2

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:03 AM PST

Eur/Usd made new high of 1.3050 on news.

1-25 Economic Calendar

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:53 PM PST

Possible USD/HKD resistance around 7.7608

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 07:08 PM PST

The pair been trading between 7.7594 and 7.7600 for the last two days, currently testing downward trend line resistance which has been developing since last Friday. Currently there is added resistance at 7.7608 by the 100 hour moving average and the 38.2% line. If there is a close above this level we look to 7.76135 as the next topside target. Failure to close higher should see continued trading in this range.

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-01-24T07:48:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EURUSD holds the support trendline on first test.
IMF Headlines
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Comes Out Much Higher than Expected
AUDUSD tests key support area
EURJPY pushes against some resistance at 100.88 area
USDCAD finds sellers on first test of 38.2% retracement level
Lending to banks rose 14.5B Euros in the current week
IIF Dallara says we now call on all parties to honour October agreement
S&P Chambers says Greece will likely be downgraded to selective default
EURUSD breaks to the downside
EU Rhen says EU backs the boosting of the firepower of the Eurozone bailout fund
Canada Retail Sales Data Increases to 0.3% from 0.2% Survey
Bobbys Corner-open Market-January.24.2012
USDJPY breaks to new month highs.
USDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY gain. Will it continue?

EURUSD holds the support trendline on first test.

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 07:08 AM PST

The EURUSD held trendline support on the 1st test on the hourly chart above. The price has rebounded to resistance on the 5 minute chart agains the underside of an trendline which was resistance, then support and now may be resistance (see chart below). The other technical note on the chart below is how the 100 and 200 bar MA (blue and green lines) have turned down after converging and flattening. This should keep the bias to the downside for the pair today. I would look for sellers up to 1.2990 area (38.2% of the weeks range). Key time for the EURUSD. We will see if the market agrees with what the technicals are saying at the moment.

IMF Headlines

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 07:04 AM PST

Lowers world growth outlook to 3.3% in 2012 from September forecast of 4%. Sees 3.9% growth in 2013
Without action, debt crisis may force 4% Euro-area contraction
2012 recession in Italy of -2.2% and -0.6% in 2013, Spain -1.7% in 2012
Maintains US growth forecast at 1.8%, projects 2.2% for 2013
Governments avoid responding to any unexpected growth downturn by tightening policies
Eurozone set to enter mild recession in 2012 at -0.5% and resume growth at 0.8% in 2012
Japan 2012 growth forecast cut to 1.7% from September forecast of 2.3%
China 2012 growth forecast cut to 8.2% from September forecast of 9.0%
Sovereign financing stress has increased
Global finance system remains fragile
Important for Euro-funding area instruments to take direct stakes in troubled banks
Intensification of European crisis could lead to world-wide recession

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Comes Out Much Higher than Expected

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:59 AM PST

Survey: 6, Actual: 12, Previous: 3

AUDUSD tests key support area

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:55 AM PST

The 1.0436 is the underside of broken trendline. The 1.0424 is the 38.2% of the consolidative range since July. The 1.0407 is the 200 day MA today. The AUDUSD has reached a low of 1.0426 and is back above the 1.0436 level currently as traders lean against the key support on the first test. Should the market rotate back down, a break these levels, it would refute the break to the upside. Holding the level today, would be bullish for the pair. Key day today.

On the topside and looking at the hourly chart, the price today fell below the 100 hour MA and the trendline at the same 1.0447 level. This is also a key level for the pair today. Staying below this level is bearish for the pair. Moving above, is good.

EURJPY pushes against some resistance at 100.88 area

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:25 AM PST

USDCAD finds sellers on first test of 38.2% retracement level

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:10 AM PST

The USDCAD has moved above the 100 hour MA and moved to test the 38.2% at the 1.0140 level. The 200 hour MA is also in the area at the 1.0145 level. Traders have used the levels to lean against and take some profits from the sharp move higher. A break above the key levels will likely trigger stops and additional buying.

ON the downside, the 1.0119 level will be eyed as channel support. Below that 1.0114 is the 38.2% of the trend move higher. If the trend higher has good trader support, keeping the bullish bias above these support levels will be eyed. On the top, the high on the 5 minute chart corresponded with the topside channel resistance. This increased the importance of the area (in addition to the hourly resistance).

Lending to banks rose 14.5B Euros in the current week

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:00 AM PST

IIF Dallara says we now call on all parties to honour October agreement

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:55 AM PST

Wants orderly management of Greek debt situation

The prospects for an agreement is becoming less and less likely it seems. Comments from Greek officials this morning pushed the agreement from this week to beginning of March. March 20th is the drop dead date as interest payments are due at that time.

S&P Chambers says Greece will likely be downgraded to selective default

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:54 AM PST

Having default within the EU does not necessarily destroy credibility in the Eurozone
It is not a given there will be a domino effect on other members in the EU

EURUSD breaks to the downside

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:44 AM PST

The action in the EURUSD has been very up and down for most of the trading day. The price peaked when the better PMI data was released. The choppiness has converged the 100 and 200 bar MA. The last peak before the recent fall to new day lows held those moving averages (see blue and green lines in the chart above). The bias is to the downside on the back of the recent move. Traders will not want to see the price move above the 100 and 200 bar MAs. Staying below the 1.2990 level would be even better for the bears/sellers (38.2% level). Continued momentum to the downside is expected.

The move to the downside has increased the days trading range to around 100 pips. It is still below the 129 pips that is the average over the last 20 days of trading. In other words there still is room to run for the pair.

EU Rhen says EU backs the boosting of the firepower of the Eurozone bailout fund

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:38 AM PST

Canada Retail Sales Data Increases to 0.3% from 0.2% Survey

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:32 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-open Market-January.24.2012

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:25 AM PST

Good Morning:

The euro was firmer in overnight trading-after a report from the Euro Zone pointed to an expanding manufacturing and service sector. This expansion data was unexpected, and much stronger than expected.
In a move to support local growth-the Reserve bank of India left their benchmark interest rate unchanged, but lowered their reserve ratio, in the hope of bringing more foreign investment to India. With Europe in crisis mode-the RBI is looking to attract foreign investments that may of gone to the EU or other world business centers instead.

It seems that the Greek government and their bondholders are not able to come to an agreement on how to solve the nations debt crisis.
Finance ministers from Europe have been reluctant to pour more money into Greece. The finance ministers have been hoping that the bondholders could offer some relief.

Asian equity markets were mixed-Europe is lower-as are US Futures.

Tonight at 9PM EST President Obama will give his “State of the Union” address.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDJPY breaks to new month highs.

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:08 AM PST

The USDJPY moved above the 100 day MA for the 3rd time in the last 4 days. This time the price has gathered momentum to the upside. A close today above the 100 day MA will be the 1st close above the key level in the new trading year. The price surge has taken the price above the 50% at 77.54. In December the price closed only twice above this level. Staying above this level today should solicit more buying in the pair.

Later today, the Japan will release the Trade Balance for December. The expectation is that for the year the Trade Balance was a net negative. This would be the 1st time that Japan has had a deficit since 1980.

The 78.008 is the next key target (61.8% of the move down) for the pair on the daily chart. The high since November has been 78.28.

On the downside, bulls looking for a sustained break higher today, will look to have corrections hold the 77.45-50 level today. This is the 38.2% of the last surge higher in the pair. If the trend is to keep the momentum, holding this retracement area is often a good clue.

USDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY gain. Will it continue?

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 04:11 AM PST

Belajar Forex Gratis

2012-01-24T07:22:00.001-08:00

Belajar Forex Gratis

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Posted: 23 Jan 2012 02:34 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

2012-01-23T07:43:00.001-08:00

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Dollar squeeze continues
Eurozone Consumer Confidence comes in at -20.6 according to news report
EURUSD consolidates in NY trade
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.23.2012
Canada Leading Indicators comes in higher at 0.8%.USDCAD weaker
Canada Leading Indicators Data Released Higher Than Expectations Today at 0.8%, Revision Also Higher 0.9%
EU Rehn says Greek talks can conclude Private Sector Involvement talks this week
EURUSD breaches 1.3000 for the 1st time since January 4th
Belgiums Di Rupo need to use existing EFSF and ESM firepower
Spain’s Q4 GDP falls 0.3% vs. prior quarter, according to Bank of Spain
The Forex Week Ahead
1-23 Economic Calendar
Aussie Above Trendline
USDSGD Below Support
EURUSD Gaps Lower But Holds

Dollar squeeze continues

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 07:22 AM PST

The EURUSD has continued the squeeze higher. The pair moved to another high for the dayafter consolidating for an hour or so in NY trade. The.market is short and as a result it becomes sensitive to good news. If Greece is thought to come to an agreement, if Consumer Confidence is a touch better, if stocks move higher, if a trendline is broken - all have the potential to move the price higher with a short market. That is what we are seeing.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence comes in at -20.6 according to news report

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 07:15 AM PST

This is a correction to what was originally reported at 10 AM of -21.0. (expected -21.4). The 2011 low came in December at -21.3. Prior to that, the most recent low was at -22.0 in August of 2009.

EURUSD consolidates in NY trade

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 06:20 AM PST

The EURUSD has consolidated at the top of the days trade. There is some lower highs in place but so far, no lower lows on the intraday chart. A move below the above trendline support at the 1.3010 wil need to be made followed by moves below recent lows in the same chart. The 1.3007, 1.2997 and the 1.2984 prices which need to be taken out. The high from last week came in at the 1.3084 level. This will be a key level for any sellers .

Until these low levels can be broken the upside buyers remain in charge. The topside target comes in at the 1.3068 area (see hourly chart below). The 1.30848 level is the midpoint of the move down from the December high to the January low.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.23.2012

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:59 AM PST

Good Morning:

Asian trading was muted as the start the Chinese New Year kept many Asian market participants away.

In a move that has been anticipated- EU Foreign Ministers announced that there will a ban on Iranian oil imports beginning July 1st in an effort to pressure the nation to contain its nuclear program. The EU will try to put measures in place to ease the pain of an embargo for some countries, like Greece
Iran has been meeting with Indian officials on how to maintain trade-as the world looks to tighten sanctions around Iran and countries doing business with them. Iran is India’s second largest oil supplier-and they have discussed Iran being paid in rupees. Iran is seeking partial payment in JPY-as Iran is concerned about the value of the rupee staying somewhat stable.

Equity markets are higher-as are US Futures.

Oil, Gold and silver are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada Leading Indicators comes in higher at 0.8%.USDCAD weaker

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:40 AM PST

The expectation was 0.6%.

The USDCAD has moved sharply lower today breaking below channel trendline support – accelerating the move down. The 38.2% of the last major move down today comes in at the 1.0101 level. The underside of the broken trendline comes in at the same area.

On the daily chart the low from December and early November comes in at the 1.0051 and 1.0053 level respectively. This area should provide good support for the pair.

Canada Leading Indicators Data Released Higher Than Expectations Today at 0.8%, Revision Also Higher 0.9%

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:33 AM PST

EU Rehn says Greek talks can conclude Private Sector Involvement talks this week

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:18 AM PST

Talks moving well at technical level
Working on the basis of the October package
He adds that the EU Finance Ministers will talk about Greek PSI and Italy and Spain

How many times does the same thing have to be said.

EURUSD breaches 1.3000 for the 1st time since January 4th

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:09 AM PST

Belgiums Di Rupo need to use existing EFSF and ESM firepower

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 04:13 AM PST

Says will have balance budget in 2015

Meanwhile IMFs Lagarde says Europe should increase size of ESM. Would like to see fund to be raised by up to 500 billion. This would help in combating risks to Italy and Spain.

Spain’s Q4 GDP falls 0.3% vs. prior quarter, according to Bank of Spain

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 01:04 AM PST

Eur/Usd is off slightly to 1.2918.

The Forex Week Ahead

Posted: 22 Jan 2012 09:24 PM PST

1-23 Economic Calendar

Posted: 22 Jan 2012 08:51 PM PST

Aussie Above Trendline

Posted: 22 Jan 2012 05:45 PM PST

The AUDUSD pair broke above 6 month old trendline resistance, but has lost its bid at the 76.4% of the October to November move.

USDSGD Below Support

Posted: 22 Jan 2012 05:34 PM PST